Zone 6 & 7 Wed. Forecast Discussion: Windy Conditions Today/Tomorrrow, Snow Poss. This Weekend? JT.

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Forecast Discussion

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: An area of low pressure continues to occlude off to the north of the forecast zones today across the Great Lakes.  

CODNEXLAB-regional-northeast-wv-ani24-201603161300-100-100-0620

While this won’t have major impact on precipitation or cloud cover, it will cause winds to become gusty. Strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible across the forecast zones. For that reason, there are Wind Advisories in place across northern portions of the forecast zones, with even some Red Flag Warnings across western Illinois.

warn-adv

Through the daytime hours we will see sunshine across zones 6 & 7. However, by early to mid-afternoon cloud cover will be on the increase from west to east.

This evening a weak 500 mb disturbance will move across the forecast zones. As it does it will prove enough to generate some light rain showers after 4-5 PM, mainly across zone 6.

5pm

Through the evening into the nighttime hours the showers will continue to move off to the east. However, as we do lose daytime heating these will start to weaken and fade. By midnight very isolated, if any, rain showers will remain across the forecast area.

Overnight clouds will start to move out of the forecast area so I think sky conditions will be mostly clear across the zones.

Lows will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s overnight.

THURSDAY: Thursday the area of low pressure will weaken and move off to the east. As it does an area of high pressure will start to ridge in from the south.

THUHIGH

However, even with the low pressure area exiting the region winds will remain strong with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

wind

With the high pressure ridging in from the south I’m not anticipating much in the way of rain for Thursday. There may be some isolated stray showers across northern zone 6 and zone 7, but overall Thursday looks to be dry.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

THUPAN

Overnight Thursday into Friday skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows in the mid to upper 30’s.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will be ridging in from the northwest on Friday. As it does it will allow colder air to spill into the forecast area. Highs on Friday will be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. However, with winds gusting from 20-30 mph, it will feel much cooler!

FRIPAN

It does look like clouds will be on the increase through the daytime hours on Friday with no precipitation in the forecast through the afternoon/evening.

FRIDAY NIGHT – WEEKEND: Friday night into Saturday’s forecast is still a bit uncertain at this time. While all models to support at least the chance of some light snow showers across zones 6 & 7, the 6z NAM 12km is very aggressive with precipitation.

By 10 pm to 12 am Friday night the nam brings in a pretty good swath of rain with some snow mixing in through the overnight and into Saturday morning. While this is the only major outlier we will be watching closely for any changes or trends in the forecast.

As you can see via these graphics the big differences between the NAM and GFS at 4 AM Saturday.

NAM4AMSAT

GFS4AM SAT

For Saturday an upper level low/trough will move into the forecast area.

500GIF

As it does it will be enough to spark some light rain and possibly some snow showers through the day on Saturday.

SAT7PM

Highs on Saturday will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.

Sunday the upper level trough will move off to the zones east. This should take most of the precipitation chances with it. While a few light rain and snow showers could stick around early, I don’t foresee any major precipitation.

SUN4AM

The late morning and afternoon hours will be dry on Sunday with highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20% CHANCE OF PM SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN TO SNOW WEST? LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AM SNOW SHOWERS TO RAIN/SNOW MIX? 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 10% CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE FOR RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO NEAR 60.