Zone 1 & 5 Wed. Forecast Discussion: Windy Today/Thu. W/ Snow Poss. This Weekend. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Wed. Forecast Discussion: Windy Today/Thu. W/ Snow Poss. This Weekend. JT.

Forecast Discussion

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: The strong area of low pressure that brought a cold front and some storms to the state last night remains in place over the Great Lakes today. While it will not bring any major precipitation chances to the forecast area, it will help generate some very strong winds!

CODNEXLAB-regional-northeast-wv-ani24-201603161300-100-100-0620

Winds this afternoon will be capable of gusting to 35-45 mph. For this reason, a Wind Advisory is in place across most of zone 1.

wa

Through the early afternoon we may see some clearing skies. However, with another weak disturbance rolling through clouds will be on the increase by mid-afternoon, especially across southern zone 1 and zone 5.

5pm

While I don’t expect any heavy rains today, some light showers can’t be ruled out across the forecast area. The better chances for some showers will be across southern zone 5 around 5-6 PM.

6pm

Any showers this evening will move out of the zones and fade out by midnight. Again, I’m not expecting any serious accumulation out of these. Perhaps .10-.20” of rain locally, closer to the Ohio River, but even that may be too aggressive.

Overnight it looks like skies will be mostly to partly clear. Lows will be in the upper 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

THURSDAY: An area of high pressure will be in place to the south with the low pressure system moving off to the northeast. With a pretty tight pressure gradient still in place, wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible.

wind

With the area of high pressure ridging into the forecast area Thursday most of the daytime hours look dry. However, there is a piece of upper level energy moving through at 500 mb. This may prove just enough to spark a few afternoon rain showers, but those look to be pretty isolated. Regardless, I expect any precipitation to be very light Thursday afternoon.

500mbthu

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

THUPAN

FRIDAY: Through the daytime hours on Friday high pressure will ridge in from the north and northwest. While this will keep us dry through the day, it will also keep temperatures cool.

fri

Highs on Friday will only be in the mid 40’s north to mid 50’s south. The good news is winds will really start to slack off through the morning hours Friday.

FRIPAN

FRIDAY NIGHT – SATURDAY: There are some model discrepancies one we get into Friday night and early Saturday. The NAM 12km brings in a pretty decent swath or rain, freezing rain, sleet, and even snow to zones 1 and 5 Friday night into Saturday. As of now the NAM is a major outlier being the only model showing this.

GFS11ASAT

NAM11AM

The GFS, EURO, and CMC all call for rain south with perhaps some light snow showers north. While it is a major outlier I wanted to mention it so everyone is at least aware of it for now. We will closely watch model trends to see if anything trends that way over the next 12 -24 hours.

Although the forecast Saturday will be highly dependent on the verification of the NAM or other models… Right now we will call for the possibility of early morning snow showers changing over to a mix to rain Saturday.

GFS11ASAT

Highs on Saturday will top out in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.

SATPAN

Overnight Saturday into Sunday an upper level trough and low pressure system will move through the forecast zones. As it does snow shower chances look to increase Saturday night into Sunday morning. While perhaps some light accumulations could be possible it’s something we will have to fine tune as we get closer.

500GIF

SUN5AM

SUNDAY: A few lingering rain and snow showers will likely stick around the forecast zones. However, I am not anticipating any all-day precipitation. Likely these showers will be isolated to scattered in nature.

SUN2PM

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20% CHANCE OF PM SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN TO SNOW WEST? LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, AM SNOW SHOWERS TO RAIN/SNOW MIX? 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20-30% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 10% CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, 20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE FOR RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO NEAR 60.