Zone 1 & 5 Monday Forecast: Rain Today, Severe Weather Possible Tuesday, Colder Air Coming. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Rain and a few t’storms will remain possible this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure spins through the region, then to the east and northeast.

By 5-6 PM this evening the area of low pressure will be moving through Ohio. As it does rain and possibly a few thunderstorms will remain in place across both zones 1 and 5.

5pm

By 10-11 pm most of the rain will be out of the region with some areas of rain remaining across very eastern zone 1 and 5 near Columbus, OH.

11PM

Overnight a front will lift northward through the forecast area, as it does a few rain showers will remain through the overnight. However, these will be light and isolated in nature.

I also won’t rule out some areas of fog overnight as well.

Lows overnight will be in the upper 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

TUESDAY: Tuesday an area of low pressure will move to the regions north. As it does an associated cold front will sweep across zones 1 and 5 late tomorrow evening into the overnight hours. This cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms with it. Some of which could be strong/severe.

Tuesday morning, we may start out with some clouds, light showers, or some fog across the area. However, through the morning I do think we will start to see some clearing and sunshine is expected by early afternoon.

Around 1-3 PM some showers or a t’storm could lift through the area as warm, moist air lifts northward. Overall, these looks pretty scattered. Once these move through I would anticipate more sunshine.

TUE2PM

With the sunshine getting through we will warm the atmosphere allowing for instability to build in across the forecast area. The latest forecast models show 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE tomorrow afternoon and evening. If you are not familiar with this value, it is a measure of instability and this time of year we really only need 800-1000 J/kg for severe weather.

CAPE

Aloft there will be a strong 500 mb jetstream moving in from the west at 50-60+ mph. At the lower levels the 850 mb jetstream will be moving in from the southwest at 45-60 mph. This will give the atmosphere the support it needs aloft and allow for storms to rotate with height, creating the possibility of supercells.

500MB

This map takes the two previous factors into account and is known as the supercell composite. As you can see by 10 PM Tuesday night when storms are moving through, the supercell composite is pretty high via the NAM 4 km.

SCC

Regarding timing…

The cold front will move across Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening. As it does rain and thunderstorms will develop along it and move east as well. Some of these will likely be severe.

It looks like storms, some strong/severe, will enter western Indiana around 8-9 PM Tuesday evening.

TUE8PM

They will quickly move eastward across the state reaching the Indianapolis metro around 10-11 PM. Again, at this time some storms could be on the strong/severe side.

TUE11PM

Through 1-2 AM these will race eastward through eastern Indiana and into Ohio. However, I think as we lose daytime heating storms will start to lose their intensity.

WED2AM

Right now the best threat of severe weather looks to be across Illinois and western Indiana. However, at least the possibility of a some strong to severe storms is in place across the forecast zones.

SVR

Over the next 48 hours some areas of heavy rainfall from both today and tomorrows rain/storms will be possible. While rainfall totals of .40-.90” look more common across the forecast area, places that get under a heavy thunderstorm or a strong/severe storm could see 1.25-1.75” locally. With that in mind, even some localized flooding can’t be ruled out.

RAIN

Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 60’s to upper 70’s.

TUEPAN

Tuesday night into Wednesday the cold front will move through the forecast zones. Behind it a few lingering showers will be possible, but overall nothing major.

Lows Tuesday night into Wednesday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

WEDNESDAY: While we will start the day with sunshine on Wednesday there will be an upper level disturbance moving through at 500 mb.

As this moves into and through zones 1 and 5 Wednesday afternoon clouds will be on the increase. By 7-8 PM Wednesday evening there will be enough lift to allow for some isolated to scattered rain and perhaps a thunderstorm to develop.

WED8PM

Once we start to get into Wednesday night around 11 pm – 12 am, these areas of rain should fade as we lose the daytime instability.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s.

WEDPAN

With an area of low pressure to the north and a tightening pressure gradient winds will be strong on Wednesday. Winds gusts from 35-45 mph possible across the zones.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: The area of low pressure will start to move off to the northeast Thursday. However, it will still allow for very windy conditions to remain for at least the first half of the day. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph will be likely, with wind gusts up to 40 mph!

While most of the day will be dry I won’t rule out a chance of some isolated showers in the afternoon.

Highs will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

THUPAN

Friday the low will be well out of the region and an area of high pressure will very briefly ridge in from the north and northwest, but there will be another area of low pressure developing to the southwest. Overall, it will be a dry day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

FRI

With the northern area of high pressure moving in temperatures will be cool to end the week with highs in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

TUESDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH PM T’STORMS, SOME STRONG/SEVERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S NORTH TO UPPER 70’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH T’STORMS EARLY, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S WEST TO MID 50’S EAST.

WEDNESDAY: STARTING MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS, 10-20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S WEST TO NEAR 50 EAST.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH 20% CHANCE OF PM SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 10-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, COOLER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30’S.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY 40% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO NEAR 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW? LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30’S.

SUNDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH AM SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 40’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO MID 30’S.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S EAST TO MID 50’S WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S EAST TO MID 40’S WEST.