Forecast Video Discussion
AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: An area of high pressure is in place over the forecast area today.This has allowed for some filtered sunshine to get through today as we do still have some high clouds to the north with a thicker cloud deck to the south.
Through the daytime hours we will see dry conditions across the forecast zones. However, through the evening there will be a bit of a disturbance moving across southern portions of the forecast area. This may be enough to get some light showers to develop around 7-8 PM this evening.
These will move north and northwestward through the late evening across southwestern zone 5. However, these will be isolated and light in nature. Showers will come to an end around 11 pm to 12 am.
By 4-5 AM more isolated showers will be possible from I-70 south.
Lows overnight will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.
WEEKEND: Through the daytime hours on Saturday a warm front will be lifting northward into the region. With this feature in place scattered areas of rain and a few t’storms will be possible through the day. By mid-day you can see isolated to widely scattered areas of rain in place across the zones.
Through the afternoon the warm front will continue north. As it does, rain and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a little bit of instability builds into southern portions of zone 1 and zone 5. By 5-6 pm scattered areas of rain and some thunderstorms will be in place across zones 1/5 in Indiana and Ohio.
Highs on Saturday will be in the low 60’s north to low 70’s south.
By 1-2 Am Sunday rain and thunderstorm coverage will be on the increase across the forecast zones. This will be thanks not only the warm front, but also some upper level energy moving through the region.
Lows Saturday night into Sunday will be in the mid 50’s north to around 60 south.
By 7-8 AM Sunday the better concentration of rainfall looks to move into northern zone 1 and points north. However, scattered areas of rain and some t’storms will remain possible across the forecast area.
Through the morning and mid-day hours on Sunday rain and thunderstorms will start to fade out and become more isolated, at least briefly.
Through the afternoon we will start to build in some instability build as we continue on a warm, moist southerly flow. While isolated rain and storms remain possible through early afternoon, coverage looks to increase closer to the 4-5 PM hours. The NAM 4 km is pretty aggressive with thunderstorm coverage and instability Sunday afternoon, likely too aggressive. So while rain and storms will occur, the NAM’s forecast may be a little too extreme.
By 7-8 PM Sunday evening scattered rain and storms will be ongoing across zones 1 and 5 from Indiana into Ohio. As mentioned, I do think the NAM 4km is a bit aggressive, however, if higher levels of instability should be realized Sunday afternoon/evening a few gusty storms can’t be ruled out.
Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.
Rain and thunderstorm coverage will decrease through the evening into the overnight Sunday. However, with an upper level trough moving through, at least isolated to widely scattered showers will remain.
Overall rainfall totals won’t be too significant as I think .40 – .80” will end up being the average rainfall totals through Sunday night. However, I won’t rule out some places getting 1-1.25” locally if you get under a t’storm.
MONDAY: Rain chances will remain through the daytime hours Monday as two features move through the region.
The first will be the upper level low that will be exiting the region. However, this will create enough lift to rejuvenate and redevelop rain across southern zone 1 and zone 5.
The second feature will be a bit of a backdoor cold front that will swing through zone 1 in the afternoon. This will also allow rain and perhaps a t’storm to develop Monday afternoon along and ahead of the front.
Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60’s north to low 70’s south.
TUESDAY: A strong area of low pressure will start to develop to the regions west on Monday. This area of low pressure will move to the east into or close to the forecast area through the day on Tuesday.
As the low pressure moves through the region it will drag a cold front with it. This will be a very sharp cold front, so as it moves to the east and northeast it will provide plenty of lift for rain and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Yesterday I mentioned that models were having a tough time developing rain and storms along the front because of the lack of moisture. However, the latest guidance has a negatively tilted surface low. The negative tilt will allow for a stronger more southerly surface flow, therefore resulting in better moisture returns.
With strong upper level winds in place with this system the biggest question is will there be instability and if so how much. The latest GFS model places 1000 J/kg of CAPE across the region. This would prove enough to support thunderstorms, some possibly strong.
This is a forecast we will have to really fine-tune as we get closer to the event and the mesoscale details become better known.
7 DAY FORECAST
SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN & A T’STORM. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.
SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH.
MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.
TUESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 50% CHANCE OF PM RAIN AND T’STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG? HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S NORTH TO UPPER 70’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 12-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS, 30% CHANCE OR RAIN & T’STORMS EARLY. LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.
THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, COOLER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO LOW 60’S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.
FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO NEAR 60.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.