Zone 1 & 5 Thursday Forecast: Rain Ends This Evening, Dry Friday, More Chances This Weekend. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Clouds and rain continue to move across Indiana and Ohio today. This as a cold front start to sag to the south. The main area of rain continues to be from the I-70 area and points south.

NOWIN

Through the afternoon hours rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will remain possible, again I think the best chance at rain and heavy rain will be from I-70 south. The latest HRRR shows the rain by 4-5 PM, but this may be a bit overdone, especially to the north.

5PM

Through the afternoon and evening an area of high pressure will start to build in from the northwest. This will help get the rain out of here through the evening. Rain looks to be out of Indiana around 9 PM, with rain ending across the rest of zones 1 and 5 before midnight.

FRI12AM

Before the rain comes to an end tonight some more decent rainfall looks to occur. I think rainfall across central and south central Indiana will be more to the tune of .30 – .75”. However, across southern Indiana in zone 6 another 1-1.25” of rainfall isn’t out of the question.

RAIN

Overnight the area of high pressure will move into the forecast area taking control of our weather locally. I still think there will be enough moisture to support mostly cloudy skies across most areas. However, enough dry air may get in across northern zone 1 for some clearing to take place there.

Lows overnight will be in the upper 30’s north to near 50 south.

FRIDAY: The area of high pressure will remain in place through the daytime hours on Friday. With this in place we will see dry conditions through most the daytime hours.

FRIDAY

While we will start mainly cloudy across zones 1 and 5 there looks to be enough dry air working to allow for some sunshine in the afternoon. Chances of sunshine will be better the farther north you go since there will be drier air closer to the high pressure system.

FRIPAN

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

Overnight Friday looks to be pretty quiet weather wise across the zones. There will be a warm front south of the region starting to lift northward. While most of the overnight looks dry, a few showers and a thunderstorm will be possible by early Saturday morning.

SAT4AM

Lows overnight will be in the low 40’s north to mid 50’s south.

WEEKEND: By 7-8 AM Saturday morning scattered areas of rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible across southern zone 1 and zone 6. Those will be thanks to isentropic lift along the warm front as it enters into southern portions of Indiana through the morning hours.

SAT7AM

By 10-11 AM Saturday the warm front will be moving quickly north across southern Indiana. By this time an area of rain and some thunderstorms will be in place across the I-70 area in Indiana and southeastward into southern Ohio.

SAT10AM

Through the afternoon the warm front will lift northward through the state and the initial rain will move to the north with it. However, with the front still in the region and a strong southerly flow of warm, moist air, isolated to scattered afternoon rain and thunderstorms will remain possible.

SAT4PM

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 60’s north to mid 70’s south.

SAT[AN

Overnight Saturday into Sunday scattered chances for rain will continue across Indiana and Ohio.

Lows will be in the mid 50’s north to near 60 south.

Sunday we will still see that warm front hanging across the region through the day.

With the warm front in place it will prove to be a good source for lift that will allow scattered rain and storms to develop once again on Sunday. While I don’t think the weekend will be a total washout I would advise checking up on the weather before heading out for any outdoor plans.

SUN1PM

Highs on Sunday will be in the low 60’s north to around 70 south.

SUNPAN

MONDAY: An upper level trough will be moving to the south and southeast of the forecast area on Monday. Models are a little fuzzy on exactly where this energy will move and impact. The GFS takes the center of this trough farther south towards southern Tennessee, this would decrease our rain chances to start the week.

mon500

However, the EURO brings the trough farther north allowing for better chances of rain to continue for Monday. Regardless, I am not anticipating any all-day rain on Monday, just scattered areas.

Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.

MID NEXT WEEK: A cold front will start to approach zones 1 and 5 through the evening/overnight hours Tuesday. As it does look like rain and thunderstorm chances will increase. However, models are still struggling with developing much in the way of precipitation, I think largely because models show a lack of any deep moisture across the region.

tue7pm

However, instability and strong upper level winds are forecast to be in place the cold front moves through late in the afternoon/evening timeframe. With that in mind it’s something we will continue to monitor over the next several days.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: SOME SUNSHINE NORTH, MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. 10% CHANCE OF PM SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHERN IN/IL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & A T’STORM. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO MID 70’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-12 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY COUDY, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S NORTH TO MID 70’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S TO UPPER 70’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

THURSDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 40’S.