#ILWX Zone 6 /7 Wed Forecast: Heavy Rain & Flooding Potential Next 36-48 Hours. JT.

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YOU’LL NOTICE WE ARE WORKING ON IMPROVING THE DELIVERY METHOD OF THESE FORECASTS WITH BETTER MAPS AND MORE CONSISTENCY. LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE SUGGESTIONS! M.

Video forecast: 

Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: A cold front remains in place to the west of the forecast area this morning. We saw some rain move across the zones overnight weakening as it did. That precipitation has pushed off to the east.

current

Through early to mid-afternoon isolated to scattered rain chances will remain possible, mainly across southern portions of zone 6. However, with the cold front still in the area I won’t rule out some isolated showers in northern zone 7 either.

Mostly cloudy conditions will stick around for most of the day. The latest HRRR model does have a few breaks in the clouds to start the afternoon, but clouds quickly build back in ahead of more rain.

HRRRMW_prec_cloud_006

This afternoon a few upper level pieces of energy will move across Illinois. With the front in place and a highly saturated atmosphere, rain will redevelop and move back into the forecast area.

By 3-4 PM this afternoon a large area of rain and perhaps a few t’storms wills move in from the southwest.

3pm

7pm

Through the evening into the overnight rain will continue to move north and northeast across zones 6 and 7. By Midnight a large area of rain will be in place across the zones, the heaviest of which will be concentrated across zone 6.

TH12AM

Through the overnight rain will continue to move across the forecast zones. While this may not be as concentrated as earlier in the period, I still think there will still be some decent coverage. Periods of heavy rain will remain possible overnight as well.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

THURSDAY: By 7-8 AM Thursday rain will still be falling in places across Illinois. While I do think the better probability of rain will be across zone 6, some isolated to scattered rain will remain possible in zone 7 as well.

THU7AM

Through the day on Thursday an area of high pressure will start to ridge into the region from the northwest. Exactly how far south this comes and how quickly will be very important for the rainfall chances and accumulations over the next 24-36 hours.

Through mid-day to early afternoon on Thursday there looks to be a period where rain lets up across the zones. By lunchtime only isolated to scattered areas of rain look possible.

THU12PM

However, that looks to be short-lived as another surge of rain and a few t’storms starts to move into the region mid to late afternoon. By 3-4 PM Thursday that more concentrated area of rain will be in place, especially over zone 6 where the heaviest rain will likely be.

THU4PM

Again this will be highly dependent on that high pressure system. If it slows down on its arrival or is farther north, it would allow for the rain to spread father north as well.

Highs on Thursday will remain much above average with temperatures topping out in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s south.

wedpan

Through the evening rain chances will be on the decrease from north to south. By 7 PM Thursday evening any remaining rain chances look to be primarily across zone 6.

THU7PM

Through the evening into the early overnight the high will ridge in from the north and push the rest of the rain to the regions south.

The overnight Thursday into Friday looks pretty dry with exception of a few isolated showers across southern zone 6.

Through Friday morning heavy rain is a serious concern across both zones 6 and 7. However, zone 6 will become the primary area of concern. The forecast models are all in pretty good agreement with an area wide 1.5-2.5” rainfall. However, in southern portions of zone 6 models are honing in on a 4-5” swath of rain with even some localized 6” reports possible by Friday morning.

nam4krain

gfsrain

ilrain
WPC rainfall outlook

With these kinds of totals flooding is a big concern across the zone forecast area. Flooding around river and creeks along with in feilds is likely. It is for this reason a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for nearly all of the forecast area.

ffw

Lows overnight Thursday into Friday morning will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will be in control of the weather for Friday. This will keep rain out of the forecast through the daytime hours.

However, I still think there will be enough moisture in place that there will still be clouds around to the south with perhaps some more sunshine across zone 7.

fripan

Highs on Friday will be a bit cooler topping out in the upper 50’s north to mid 60’s south.

Friday night the area of high pressure will retreat off to the regions east. This will allow for the warm front to start to creep northward closer to the forecast area. As it does some isentropic lift along the warm front will likely prove enough to generate a few rain showers across zone 6 overnight.

SAT 7 AM

Lows Friday night into Saturday will be in the low 40’s north to around 60 south.

WEEKEND: Saturday morning the warm front will lift through the forecast zones. As it does a warm and highly saturated southerly flow of air will return to the forecast area.

With that warm southerly flow of air rain chances will increase once again across Illinois. While I don’t think this will be an all-day rain, isolated to scattered area of rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the day.

SAT1PM

Highs on Saturday will warm into the mid 60’s to mid 70’s.

satpan

Saturday night into Sunday a disturbance will move into the forecast area. While it won’t be overly impressive, but with the amount of moisture in the environment rain chances will be on the increase overnight. Some of that rain could be heavy at times.

Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 50’s north to around 60 south.

As pieces of upper level energy continue to move through the forecast area Sunday scattered areas of rain and a few t’storms will remain in the forecast.

sun7pm

Highs on Sunday will be in the low 60’s north to near 70 south.

NEXT WEEK: A much stronger area of low pressure will be getting its act together to the regions west next week. While chances for rain will remain in the forecast for Monday, this should allow for a temporary break in the rain chances Monday night and Tuesday. Even some sunshine is possible Tuesday.

montue

Highs will be much above average again next week with even some models indicating upper 70’s to near 80 not being out of the question by mid-week!

7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN & SOME T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH, 20% CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 6-12 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S TO MID 70’S. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 70’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70’S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S WEST TO MID 60’S EAST.