Zone 1 & 5 Tuesday Forecast: Nice Today, but Heavy Rain & T’Storms Becoming Likely. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Today has started out sunny and has warmed very quickly across the state as we remain on a strong southerly flow of air. That southerly flow of air will continue today and as a result it will likely be the warmest day of the year with highs in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.

current

This afternoon and evening clouds will thicken up after the mid-day hour, but likely give way to more sunshine late in the afternoon/early evening. However, the afternoon hours will be dry, so it will be a very nice day out there.

5pmcld

Late this evening into the early overnight I won’t rule out a few isolated showers across zone 1 and 5 in Indiana. Overall, not much precipitation is anticipated.

Through the overnight we will be watching rain develop along a cold front to the forecast areas west. This will progress east and northeast across Illinois through the late night into early Wednesday. It looks like by 4 am Wednesday morning an area of rain and a few thunderstorms will be entering western Indiana.

WED4AM

Lows overnight tonight will be in the low 50’s north to around 60 south.

WEDNESDAY: Through the morning hours that area of rain and storms will quickly race east and northeast across Indiana. I think these will be weakening as they do. Better chances for rain will arrive by 5-6 AM across the Indianapolis metro with a thunderstorms possible across Indiana as well.

Through the morning hours the rain will move eastward fading out as it does. By 9-10 AM rain will be in western Ohio, but it looks pretty weak at this point.

WED9AM

Once the morning rain moves out I think there will be a lot of dry time through the day Wednesday across zones 1 and 5 with only some isolated rain chances across the area.

Once again we will see a strong southerly flow continue on Wednesday so temperatures will once again be unseasonably warm. Highs will top out in the mid 60’s north to upper 70’s south. Winds will be strong at times, gusting up to 30 mph.

wedpan

Wednesday night some isolated to scattered rain chances will start to move back into the forecast area by 9-10 PM. This will be ahead of a bigger area of rain and t’storms moving across Illinois.

It looks like by 2-3 AM Thursday morning better chances of rain and storms will be in place across zones 1 and 5 in Indiana.

THU1AM

THURSDAY: By 7-8 AM Thursday rain and a few storms will be moving across Indiana and into western Ohio. Some of these storms could produce some heavy rain as they move through the area.

THU7AM

Through the daytime hours on Thursday an area of high pressure will be building in from the north. This is something we talked about in yesterday’s discussion and video, now models have come around to this idea.

thihgh

During the daytime hours Thursday rain look to be widespread across the forecast area since the high will still be to the areas northwest.

I do think by late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night the area of high pressure will ridge into the forecast zones. As it does it will suppress the frontal boundary and system farther south. So as a result better chances for rain will be from the I-70 corridor and points south with periods of heavy rain possible.

THUR7PM

With precipitable water values around 1.2-1.6” there will be plenty of moisture available to support heavy rain Thursday night. Especially across southern Indiana and southern Ohio.

pwatrv

You can see via the latest NAM 4 km the rain and heavy rain by 7 PM Thursday evening.

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.

thupan

Early Thursday night heavy rain and thunderstorms look possible, especially across southern zone 1 and zone 5 across Indiana and Ohio.

However, through the overnight the high is forecast to build in. This will decrease rain chances in a couple of ways. The first being it will suppress things farther south. The other being that drier air will filter in as well.

So overnight Thursday into Friday there looks to only be some scattered chances of rain across very southern Indiana and southern Ohio.

Lows will be around 40 north to the low 50’s south.

By late Thursday night into Friday morning new rainfall totals of 1.5-2.5” looks possible, especially across western and southern Indiana. With that amount of rain expected flooding does remain a concern in those locations. It’s something we will continue to watch over the next several days.

NAM
NAM

 

GFS
GFS

FRIDAY: Friday the high pressure will start to move off to the east. There looks to be enough influence from the area of high pressure to keep rain chances in southern zone 6 through most of the day.

frihigh

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s.

fripan

However, by 5-7 PM Friday evening the high will be far enough west that it will allow rain to start to work back northward, just in time for the weekend.

WEEKEND: The area of high pressure will move off to the east and northeast late Friday into Saturday.

SAT/SUN
SAT/SUN

As it does rain chances will be on the increase with rain possible both Saturday and Sunday. Timing of the rain will have to be fined-tuned this week.

Heavy rainfall is still anticipated over the next 7 days. By the time we get into next Tuesday night models continue to show rainfall totals around 1.8-2.5” being common across the area. We will be watching trends closely because ground is already saturated in areas, so copious amounts of rain could cause some flooding concerns.

GEM
GEM
GFS
GFS

 

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. 50% CHANCE OF RAIN & SOME T’STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO UPPER 70’S. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 60% CHANCE OF RAIN & AN ISOLATED T’STORM, SOME HEAVY. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO LOW 60 SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS, SOME HEAVY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 20% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS, MAINLY SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN & T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S TO MID 70’S. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND T’STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOW 50’S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AM RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60’S TO MID/UPPER 70’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 50 NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70’S TO LOW 80’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.