Zone 6 & 7 Forecast Discussion: Rain Showers Tonight, Nice Weekend, Heavy Rain Next Week. JT. #ILwx

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 6 & 7 Forecast Discussion: Rain Showers Tonight, Nice Weekend, Heavy Rain Next Week. JT. #ILwx

Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: High pressure will remain in place across the forecast zones today. While we are starting off the day with a lot of clouds, we will see some clearing take place this afternoon.

5pmclouds

Tonight the area of high pressure will move off to the regions east. Behind it a low pressure and cold front will start to move into and through the region. This cold front will bring the chance of rain with it overnight. By 12-1 AM some rain showers will be possible across northwestern zone 7 near the Springfield, IL area.

SAT1AM

Through the overnight isolated to widely scattered rain showers will move southeast across zones 6 and 7 as the cold front moves through. It looks like by 7-8 AM the rain should be exiting out of the zones into Illinois.

SAT7PM

Any accumulations from rain will be extremely light in nature.

satraintots

Lows overnight will be in the mid 30’s north to low 40’s south.

WEEKEND: As the cold front moves to the east early in the morning hours on Saturday an area of high pressure will build into the region through the afternoon hours.

The morning into the early afternoon will be cloudy with perhaps a little drizzle as moisture gets trapped at the lowers levels. However, through the afternoon drier air will move in with the area of high pressure, so some afternoon sunshine does look possible.

satpan

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to around 60 south. Winds will be relatively strong with gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Saturday night the area of high pressure will remain in place along with some clouds.

Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

Sunday the area of high pressure will move off to the regions east. However, it will still be the main influence on our weather across zones 6 and 7. While Sunday will be dry, there will be a mix of sun and clouds through the day.

SUNPRSS

Highs on Sunday will be in around 50 north to around 60 south.

sunpan

Sunday night clouds will increase across the forecast zones as we start to get under the influence of a developing low pressure system.

A warm front will start to move north into Illinois Sunday night into Monday. While rain chances don’t looks overly impressive, isentropic lift along the front will likely prove enough to spark a few isolated areas of rain.

Lows Sunday night will be in the low 40’s to around 50.

MONDAY: The front will be to our north on Monday. However, with a warm and moist supply of air some isolated chances of rain will remain in the forecast.

Monday
Monday

Highs on Monday will be very warm, topping out in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s!

monpan

NEXT WEEK: An upper level ridge will start to ridge northward across the eastern United states next week. This will allow for above average temperatures and a steady supply of moisture to overspread the eastern U.S.

ridge

Highs across the regions will be well above normal next week. The latest models showing 15-25° above average temperatures across the region by mid next week!

gfs_T2ma_ncus_19

By mid next week a frontal boundary will move into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. As it does it will stall out across the forecast zones.

front

With very impressive moisture returns on a strong southerly flow rain and t’storms will develop along this frontal boundary next week. This will bring daily rain chances to the forecast zones. With precipitable water values of 1.3-2” through the week next week heavy rainfall will be likely.

pwat

The latest models show some impressive amounts of rain across zones 6 the GEM is a little less aggressive with 3-5” of rainfall. However, the GFS remains extremely aggressive with 5-10” of rainfall next week!

GEM
GEM

 

gfs
GFS

With the front in place and the available moisture some large amounts of rain look plausible. If these totals are realized then I would be greatly concerned about widespread flooding. This is something we will be watching closely over the next week or so.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: AM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, PM RAIN EAST. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE OF RAIN WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S EAST TO AROUND 50 WEST.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS, MAINLY WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS, SOME HEAVY POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS, SOME HEAVY POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S TO MID 50’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN ANS T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO MID 60’S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S TO LOW 60’S.