Zone 1 & 5 Friday Forecast: Rain & Snow Showers Overnight, Nicer To End Weekend, Heavy Rain Next Week. JT #INwx

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Forecast Discussion

AFTERNOON – OVERNIGHT: Clouds continue to erode across the northwestern portions of zone 1 this morning. This is as an area of high pressure and drier air work into the forecast area.

visnow

This afternoon the area of high pressure will be in place and I think sunshine will be getting through in many locations.

5pmcloudsin
5 PM Cloud Coverage

Overnight clouds will start to thicken up from west to east as an area of low pressure moves to the north of the region.

Through the overnight hours shower chances will start to increase across northwestern zone 1. By 1-2 AM some rain showers will become possible from Lafayette to Indianapolis, with even some snow possible across very northern zone 1.

SAT1AM

Through the overnight hours rain and snow showers will remain possible. Snow looks to fall from about the Lafayette, Indiana to Cincinnati, Ohio line and points northeast. Places just to the south of that line could see a bit of a rain/snow mix briefly, this could possibly include the Indianapolis area early Saturday morning.

SAT3AM

By 7-8 AM showers will still be moving across the forecast zones. While I think by this time temperatures will be supportive of mostly rain across zone 1 and 5 in Indiana, very eastern Indiana and into Ohio will continue to see some snow showers.


7amsat

Regarding overnight snowfall totals, I am not anticipating any large amounts of snow. However across eastern Indiana and into Ohio snow accumulations of .10-.50” will be more likely. However, there could be a couple localized areas that get around 1”.

acc10_1snowrv

WEEKEND: Saturday we will start out with the rain and snow chances across zones 1 and 5. While high pressure will start to work in from the northwest I think low-level moisture will really limit sunshine potential. With the low-level moisture in place a few isolated rain showers and drizzle look possible through early to mid-afternoon.

sat2pm

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to upper 50’s south. There will also be some strong winds with 30 mph gusts possible.

satpan

Saturday night an area of high pressure will start to build into the forecast zones. While this will start to clear some places out, I think clouds will also be left over especially north and east.

It is also worth a mention that some patchy areas of fog may form. It doesn’t look widespread, but it does look like there will be some. With lows in the mid 20s north to mid 30’s south Saturday night into Sunday some areas in central and northern zone 1 would  have temperatures that would support freezing fog, if and when fog develops.

Sunday the area of high pressure will remain in place across zones 1 and 5. This will keep the daytime hours on Sunday dry. It will also allow drier air to continue working in across the forecast region. So I would expect at least partly sunny skies. However, models have really overdone atmospheric moisture through the winter, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trend towards more sunshine for Sunday.

SUNPRSS

Highs on Sunday will be around 50 north to around 60 south.

sunpan

MONDAY: The area of high pressure will move off to the east Sunday night into Monday. As it does the area of low pressure to the regions west will become a bigger influence on the weather across zones 1 and 5. As strong southerly winds pump in warmer, moister air on Monday clouds will be on the increase. However, with no real lifting mechanism a dry day is anticipated.

monpan

Highs on Monday will be in the upper 50’s north to upper 60’s south.

NEXT WEEK: At the upper levels a 500 mb ridge will start to build in across the eastern Unites States next week. This will allow for unseasonably warm, moist air to surge into the forecast area from the south.

ridge

Highs across the regions will be well above normal next week. The latest models showing 15-25° above average temperatures across the region by mid next week!

gfs_T2ma_ncus_19

By mid next week a frontal boundary will move into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. As it does it will stall out across the forecast zones.

front

With very impressive moisture returns on a strong southerly flow rain and t’storms will develop along this frontal boundary next week. This will bring daily rain chances to the forecast zones. With precipitable water values of 1.3-2” through the week next week heavy rainfall will be likely.

pwat

The latest models show some impressive amounts of rain across zones 1 and 5 over the next 7 days. The GEM is less aggressive with 1.5-2.5” of rainfall. However, the GFS remains extremely aggressive with 4-8.5” of rainfall next week!

GEM
GEM

 

gfs
GFS

With the front in place and the available moisture, heavy rain looks very likely next week. If these totals are realized then I would be greatly concerned about widespread flooding. This is something we will be watching closely over the next week or s0.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: AM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, PM RAIN EAST. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 50 NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 10% CHANCE OF RAIN WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S EAST TO AROUND 50 WEST.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS, MAINLY WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60’S NORTH TO LOW 70’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS, SOME HEAVY POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS, SOME HEAVY POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40’S TO MID 50’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN ANS T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO MID 60’S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S TO LOW 60’S.