Zone 6 & 7 Thursday Forecast: Precipitation Ends, Nice Weekend, Next Week Warm W/ Rain. JT.

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Forecast Discussion

EVENING – TONIGHT: The area of rain that has impacted the zones 6 and 7 today will continue moving out of the region. By 7-8 PM this evening most of the precipitation will be out of the forecast area with the exception of a few stray rain showers.

7pm

Overnight all of the precipitation will exit out of the forecast zones to the east. While we will start to dry out more aloft I still think there will be moisture lower in the environment so clouds will stick around into the overnight.

FRI2AM

Lows tonight will be in the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will be in place at the surface for the day on Friday. This will allow for more dry air to work through the environment. As the dry air moves in I do believe some sunshine will start to get through during the afternoon. So I will call for morning clouds with a mix of afternoon clouds and sunshine.

fripan

Highs on Friday across Illinois will be in the upper 30’s north to around 50° south. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5-15 mph.

Friday night another clipper system will move into the region from the northwest. Through the night clouds will start to thicken back up in most places as the low approaches.

By 12-2 AM rain showers will be possible across zone 7 and perhaps northern zone 6 as a weak cold front moves across Illinois.

By 5-7 AM Saturday morning the front will be advancing east and southeastward across zones 6 and 7. A few isolated to scattered rain showers will remain possible across eastern zone 7 and eastern/southern zone 6.  

SAT7AM

Lows overnight will be in the mid to upper 30’s, so precipitation is expected to be rain across Illinois. Any rain that does occur will be very light in nature with very little accumulation.

WEEKEND: The front will move through Illinois by the morning hours on Saturday and the rain will exit into Indiana. Behind the front an area of high pressure will build into the forecast zones.

SATPRESS

This will allow for drier air to work across Illinois, especially in the afternoon hours. As the dry air moves in clouds will start to thin out and we will likely see afternoon sunshine on Saturday!

satpan

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40’s north to upper 50’s south.

Winds on Saturday will be sustained at 5-15 mph, but some strong gusts of 30 mph will be possible.

On Sunday the area of high pressure will be just to the states east. However, the influence of the high will still be felt across the forecast region as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies look to remain in place through most of the day.

sfcrv

By late afternoon and into the evening on Sunday a few isolated rain showers may be possible across very western zones 6/7. Overall though, Sunday will be a very nice day and the best day of the weekend.

sunpan

Highs on Sunday will be around 50° north to around 60° south. I will mention, models have struggled with warm air advection and high temperatures, especially when there is sunshine. So a trend of highs in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s wouldn’t surprise me at all.

NEXT WEEK: An impressive upper level ridge will start to build into the forecast area late this weekend and into next week. While this will be great for temperatures as we will be on a strong southerly flow of air, the southerly flow of air will also usher in copious amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture.

500HGIF

Let’s first talk about temperatures for next week. As the strong southerly flow continues it will allow temperatures to be above average for the majority, if not all, of next week. The latest run of the GFS shows a few days of 18-24° above normal temperatures! So overall it will feel like spring out there.

tep

However, with the warm temperatures will come an influx of Gulf moisture. This moisture will seemingly always be feeding into the Midwest and the forecast region. With the warm air in place and moisture as well, rain and thunderstorms will be in the forecast nearly everyday. Keep in mind, I’ m not saying next week will be a washout, just that precipitation chances will be there.

Some of the latest model guidance does suggest places over the next 7 days will see more than their share of rainfall. The latest guidance from the WPC places from 3-4” of rain across southwestern Illinois.

97ep48iwbg_fill

The latest GFS and GEM model places as much as 4-6” of rain over portions of the region through next Friday morning. If that potential is realize flooding is something we will have to keep a close eye on next week.

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GFS

 

gemrain
GEM

 

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: AM RAIN AND SNOW, PM RAIN FAR EAST. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, 20% CHANCE OF PM RAIN WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO NEAR 50.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS, MAINLY WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE 50’S.

WEDNESDAY: 40-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE 50’S.