Zone 1 & 5 Forecast Discussion: Rain & Snow Ending, Active Pattern Remains. JT.

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Video forecast:

Forecast Discussion

EVENING – TONIGHT: A cold front continues to the east across the region this afternoon and evening. Behind it temperatures are dropping very quickly. Temperatures across Illinois and western Indiana are already dropping into the upper 20’s and 30’s!

TEMP

Current radar shows the rain across Indiana. However, the back edge of the “rain” is falling as snow. So as it moves through a quick intense burst of snow can be expected. However, with wet surfaces and a warm ground I doubt any sticks.

rad

This evening the front continues east along with the rainfall. By 5-6 PM most of the rainfall look to be moving out of Indiana and into Ohio.

6pm

Through the evening temperatures will rapidly drop. As they quickly drop below freezing any wet surfaces could undergo flash freezing and become slippery. The main challenge will be timing the freezing temperatures out. The cold air is working in much quicker to our west than models are anticipating. So while models are in good agreement that the freezing line doesn’t arrive until 7 pm in the metro, I think that may be a little slow. I would say freezing temperatures arrive in the metro closer to the 5 to 6 PM hours.

7pmfreeze

As the freezing temperatures work in this evening any leftover moisture will change over to snow. While I’m not anticipating anything too much I still think some light snow showers and flurries are possible through 10-11 PM.

11pm

With the strong northwesterly winds we will also continue with the threat of some lake effect snow showers across the northern half of zone one through 12-1 am.

Overnight we will have a stiff north to northwesterly flow with winds gusting up to 35-45 mph. With lows falling into the 20’s it will feel more like the teens.

Overall I am thinking there will be very little in the way of snowfall overnight. A coating or a couple of tenths of an inch will be possible, especially in places where the lake effect showers move over. However, many places will likely wake up to no snow on the ground once again Wednesday morning.

1hkucherasnowrv

WEDNESDAY: Tuesday night into Wednesday an area of high pressure will build into zones 1 and 5. This will keep us with a mix of clouds and sun through most of the day on Wednesday.

wedpressure

Highs will be in the mid 30’s north to upper 40’s south.

wedpan

Wednesday evening clouds will start to increase from the west as another area of low pressure moves into the region. With it will come the chance at rain and possibly some accumulating snow.

By 7-8 PM some isolated rain showers will be possible across western Indiana as the low moves closer to the region.

WED10PM

However, through the evening rain and snow will start to move into Indiana. By 12-1 AM Thursday rain looks to be occurring south of I-70 with snow to the north.

THU1AM

By 4 AM Thursday snow looks to be falling across the northern portions of zone 1 and into eastern Indiana/western Ohio. It currently looks like with the low traveling through south central Illinois and southern Indiana temperatures there will be above freezing and will support a mostly rain event.

THU4AM

Lows overnight will be in the upper 20’s north to upper 30’s south.

thupan

THURSDAY: The low will move off to the south and southeast of the region Thursday morning. This will allow for colder air to work into zone 1 through the morning hours. As it does rain will change over to snow around the I-70 area and points north.

THU 10AM

Through early afternoon the snow will work off into very eastern Indiana and western Ohio.

By 6-7 PM Thursday evening only some light snow showers look to be occurring across the forecast area.

New rainfall totals of .10-.30” of rain can be expected across the area where rain does occur. However, it does look like there will be times of heavier rain, so local areas could see up to .50-.60”.

24hqpfrv (1)

The track of the low will be key in forecasting exactly where the snow falls and how much falls there. Right now it looks like a line from Lafayette, IN southeast to Cincinnati, Ohio and points north will be the best bet for accumulating snow.

snow threat

Many of the models would support this forecast including the NAM 4km and the GEM. These models would suggest the heaviest snow would occur in very northern zone 1 and into very northern Indiana. Averaging the forecast from the NAM 12km/NAM 4km/GEM/GFS/EURO Indianapolis would get 1” of new snow.

snow4km
NAM 4 km

 

GEM
GEM

These systems have been very tricky this year and have often times thrown wrenches into the forecast at the last second. So make sure to check back in for potential updates.

FRIDAY – SATURDAY AM: We will start out Friday under an area of high pressure. This will allow for clouds to decrease through the morning and probably early afternoon.

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 30’s north to upper 40’s south.

fripan

However, we will be continuing on that active northwesterly flow at 500 mb. This is the flow that ushers in clipper after clipper.

500GIF

Friday evening we will watch another clipper system move into the forecast area from the northwest. As it does rain and snow chances will once again be introduced into the forecast very late Friday night and through the day on Saturday. It is still a little early to pick out details just yet, but we will be keeping a close eye on it.

FRIGIF
Fri 7 PM – Sun 1 AM

WEEKEND: Saturday the area of low pressure will continue off southeast through the region. While we could start the day with some snow, temperatures look to warm above freezing, so any snow will change over to rain through the day.

High pressure will build in late Saturday into Sunday. This should give us a pretty nice end to the weekend with a mix of clouds and sun.

SUNPRESS

Right now I will remain conservative with temperatures Sunday with highs in the upper 40’s north to low 60’s south. However, models have been a little sluggish with warm air and have many times been far too cool. So highs Sunday could be warmer, especially if more sunshine can be realized!

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: A FEW AM SNOW SHOWERS WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW LATE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, SOME RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LIKELY SEEING SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEVOER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. EASTERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, RAIN AND SNOW ENDS. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

SATURDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S TO MID 50’S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: RAIN ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

SUNDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

MONDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO UPPER 60’S SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 40% CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW T’STORMS. LOWS IN THE 50’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN OR T’STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60’S TO LOW 70’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S.