Zone 6 & 7 Friday Forecast Discussion, Nice Weekend W/ Rain Sunday, Poss. Snow Next Week. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 6 & 7 Friday Forecast Discussion, Nice Weekend W/ Rain Sunday, Poss. Snow Next Week. JT.

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An upper level disturbance will be moving through the forecast area this evening and tonight.

500mb

This will likely allow clouds to increase across the forecast area. A few snow showers and flurries will be possible this evening, mainly across eastern portions of zones 6 and 7. However, very little to no accumulation is anticipated.

5pm

Overnight clouds will clear out of the region from west to east as the 500 mb disturbance moves out of the forecast area.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s across the area.

I will mention some models do have some fog developing in portions of southern zone 7 and zone 6. With that being said, models have been very aggressive with fog this year and many times the fog is never realized. So while I think models are too aggressive I think it wise to at least mention it, because with temperatures around 30-33° in most of the region any fog that does develop could freeze making for some slick surfaces by morning.

WEEKEND: A strong 1026 mb area of high pressure will be in place along the Gulf Coast region.

sathigh

At the upper levels of the atmosphere an upper level ridge will move into the region allowing for upper level heights to pump up over the region. This will allow for a southerly flow of air and in result, warming temperatures.

500mbgif

With the high pressure ridge in place Saturday sunny to mostly sunny conditions will be in place. Highs will be in the upper 40’s north to near 60 south.

SATPAN

Sunday the area of high pressure will move off of the southeast coast and a low pressure will start to move to the forecast areas north. As it does it will drag a cold front across the forecast areas Sunday.

weekendprecip

While the morning hours do look mostly dry across zones 6 and 7, rain and perhaps a few storms will develop along the front in the afternoon hours. Right now the best timing for any precipitation would be after 2-3 PM across the zones. However, that will depend a lot on timing and the actual strength of the front.

sun4pm

Through the afternoon and into the evening rain and some storms will advance across the eastern portion of Illinois. These look to move completely out of the state and into Indiana by 8-9 PM.

sun7pm

Overall accumulation from rain doesn’t look impressive. Most places will only see .10″ or less. However, if you do get under a thunderstorm .20-.50” of rainfall can’t be ruled out locally.

rainfallil

Winds on Sunday will also be strong as the pressure gradient tightens around the area of low pressure. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph are likely, along with gusts of 30-40 mph.

Sunday night the rain will be out of the forecast area and clouds will start to move out as well. If there is enough moisture initially left over, there could be some isolated light snow showers. However, not enough to accumulate.

SUNPAN

Lows overnight Sunday into Monday will be in the low 30’s to mid 40’s.

NEXT WEEK: As the cold front moves off to the east by Monday morning we will start the week calm as an area of high pressure moves in.

mon

Through the day on Monday mostly sunny skies look to be a good bet. Highs will be in the upper 40’s north to around 60° to the south. So overall not a bad way to start the week.

MONPAN

Late Monday night into Tuesday we will have our eye on another storms system that will impact the forecast area early to mid-week.

While a lot of models are taking the low to the north of the forecast zones resulting in rain and thunderstorms, a few are suggesting it will go south. A more southerly solution would favor the possibility for accumulating snow for some portions of the Midwest.

CMC
CMC

 

GFS
GFS

Overall I do favor the more southern solution as the forecast pattern seems to be repeating itself from the past 7 days or so. Not to mention some of the model trends have started to favor that solution. Overall, this is still a system that will bear watching over the next several days and we will bring you the latest as needed.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SUNDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, PM CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN SOUTH AND WEST? LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION? NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 50’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION ENDING. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO NEAR 40.