Zone 1 & 5 Friday Forecast Discussion: Warm Weekend W/ Rain & Storms Sunday, Snow Poss. Next Week. JT.

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Friday Forecast Discussion: Warm Weekend W/ Rain & Storms Sunday, Snow Poss. Next Week. JT.

Forecast Discussion: 

EVENING – TONIGHT: An upper level disturbance associated with a 500 mb trough continues moving into and through the forecast area this afternoon and evening.

500MBIN

As it does some better cloud coverage and even some afternoon/evening snow showers will be possible.

7PM

The low-level lapse rates will also be impressive across zones 1 and 5 this afternoon, so the instability will likely help drive those snow showers chances as well. Farther south across zone 5 where it is warmer, those could end up being rain showers since it will be warmer there.

LAPSE

While a few isolated places could see a coating or a tenth of an inch, overall no snow accumulations are anticipated this afternoon/evening across the zones.

SNOWFALL

Overnight the upper level energy will move out of the area and after sunset will start to lose any instability we have. So any snow showers we have will fade out, these should come to a complete end around 12-1 AM.

SAT1AM

Overnight lows will fall into the 20’s to low 30’s.

WEEKEND: A strong 1026 mb area of high pressure will be in place across the Gulf Coast on Saturday.

sathigh

Aloft a ridge of high pressure will move into the Midwest and this will allow for upper level heights to rise.

500mbgif

With the high in place winds will start to turn out of the south and southwest and warmer air will start to surge in for the weekend. It will also allow for sunny to mostly sunny skies on Saturday.

SATPAN

Highs will be in the upper 40’s north to upper 50’s south.

Sunday the area of high pressure will move off of the southeast coast. As it does an area of low pressure will move to the north of the region swinging a cold front through the Midwest through the day and into the evening.

weekendprecip

Clouds through the day on Sunday will start to thicken up as the cold front approaches from the west.

As the low pressure strengthens and moves close to the region Sunday winds will increase from the southwest. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph will be likely with gusts of 30-40 mph.

SUNPAN

Highs on Sunday will be very spring like with temperatures reaching into the upper 50’s to upper 60’s. IF more sunshine can be realized as models have started to hint at, perhaps 70° or so could be achieved across southern zone 1 and zone 5.

While most of Sunday looks dry across zones 1 and 5 the cold front will start to enter eastern Illinois and western Indiana around 7 PM. Along and ahead of the front areas of rain and even some thunderstorms will be possible. At this time they will likely be moving into western Indiana from Illinois.

SUN7PM

By 9-11 PM the front will be oriented from FT. Wayne to Evansville Indiana. Rain and a few thunderstorms will remain possible across the state and into very western Ohio.

By 1-4 AM Sunday night into Monday the cold front and rain will move completely out of Indiana and through western Ohio. Rain is expected to be well out of the forecast zones by sunrise Monday.

MON1AM

There will probably be some low-low moisture around Sunday night into Monday across both zones, so a few light snow showers or flurries will be possible. However, very little to no accumulation is forecast.

Regarding rainfall accumulation it does look to be on the light side. Models are in pretty good agreement that most places see less the .15″ of rain. However, if a few thunderstorms do develop I won’t be shocked to see some isolated spots get .20-.50″. However, overall this system looks pretty moisture starved.

rain

Lows overnight into Monday morning will fall into the low 30’s to mid 40’s.

NEXT WEEK: As the cold front moves off to the east by Monday morning we will start the week calm as an area of high pressure moves in.

MONPAN

Through the day on Monday mostly sunny skies look to be a good bet. Highs will be in the upper 40’s north to around 60° to the south. So overall not a bad way to start the week.

Late Monday night into Tuesday we will have our eye on another storm system that will impact the forecast area early to mid-week.

While a lot of models are taking the low to the north of the forecast zones resulting in rain and thunderstorms, a few are suggesting it will go south. A more southerly solution would favor the possibility for accumulating snow for some portions of the Midwest.

CMC
CMC

 

GFS
GFS

Overall I do favor the more southern solution as the forecast pattern seems to be repeating itself from the past 7 days or so. Not to mention some of the model trends have started to favor that solution. Overall, this is still a system that will bear watching over the next several days and we will bring you the latest as needed.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SUNDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, PM CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN SOUTH AND WEST? LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATION? NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 50’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION ENDING. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO NEAR 40.