Zone 6 & 7 Forecast Discussion: Snow Ending, Warmer Air Moves In! JT. #ILWX

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Short and long range premium discussion. M. 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: The low pressure system that brought rain and snow to zones 6 and 7 has moved off to the northeast. However, there is low-level moisture left so clouds and even some snow showers remain.

LOWPRESS

Overnight I expect clouds to stick around Illinois. However, most of the precipitation will come to an end with only a few isolated light snow showers and flurries around. No accumulation is anticipated.

fri12am

Lows overnight will be low 20’s north to around 30° south.

FRIDAY: While high pressure will start to ridge in from the south an upper level disturbance will move across the region through the daytime hours.

namconus_z500_vort_us_13

This will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across the forecast area Friday. While there may be some isolated snow and rain showers across eastern zone 6 and 7 after 12-1 PM, I think most of the area will remain dry.

FRI5PM

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

FRI

WEEKEND: An area of high pressure will be in place across the Gulf Coast. This will be a strong 1028 mb high so it will ridge into the forecast area on Saturday. With that high ridging in it will clear out the clouds, so sunny to mostly sunny skies will be in place Saturday.

SAT

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40’s north to upper 50’s south.

Saturday night some warmer air will surge into the forecast region. With snowpack down across portions of region fog will be possible, some of which could be dense.

Lows Saturday night into Sunday will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s, so any fog that does develop is not forecast to freeze.

Sunday clouds will increase from the west as an area of low pressure brings a weak cold front across zones 6 and 7.

SUN NAM

As the cold front moves through Sunday afternoon not much moisture will be in place. So overall I think only isolated to scattered rain chances will be possible Sunday afternoon through early Sunday evening.

SUN4PM

As the pressure gradient along the low tightens, winds will start to become strong through the day on Sunday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible.

SUNPAN

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s. Some places could see near or just over 70° Sunday afternoon depending on cloud cover. Precipitation, and the timing of the cold front.

NEXT WEEK: Models do remain very active next week and the pattern looks a lot like what has occurred across the region over the past 7 days. The latest GFS and CMC models do show a more rain and possibly thunderstorm event next week. However, past runs have suggested a “repeat” of yesterday’s storm with wintrier precipitation possible.  

GFS
GFS
EURO
EURO

Overall I would favor the wintrier outcome seeing as it does fit the current weather pattern. However, models have been very unreliable this year so it’s a forecast we will have to fine tune over the next several days.

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING FOG IN NW ZONE 1 AND IN ILLINOIS POSSIBLE. THEN, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY A FEW ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: DECREASING CLOUDS AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SUNDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, PM CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO MID 40’S.

MONDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO AROUND 60 SOUTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN SOUTH AND WEST? LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTHWEST TO MID 60’S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH RAIN SOUTH, CHANGING TO SNOW NORTH? LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

THURSDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION ENDING. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.