Zone 1 & 5 Forecast Discussion & Winter Storm Update. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: The area of low pressure continues off to the northeast this afternoon and evening. While precipitation remains as rain closer to the low across southern Indiana, cold air is working in quickly behind the storm changing rain over to snow.

lowpress

This evening rain will continue changing over to snow across the area from west to east. By 4-6 PM this evening rain will be changing over to snow across from I-65 eastward and I-70 southward across southeast Indiana. Heavy snow looks to be occurring especially across northwestern zone 1.

6pm

I also want to mention places from I-70 north that are under the winter weather advisory could see some freezing rain and sleet. While not everyone will get this and I don’t think it will be a major threat, the models are in agreement that areas of some light ice accumulation are possible.

iceince

Through the evening any rain left over southeastern Indiana will transition over to all snow by 8-9 PM.

10pm

Overnight the heaviest snow will start to lighten up across the forecast area. However, snow will remain possible overnight. Some lake effect snow may impact northern portions of zone 1 overnight as well as we remain on a strong north to northwest wind.

THU4AM

Regarding total snowfall we will keep the previous forecast across the forecast zones. The only thing I will emphasize is around the Indianapolis area east and south we will likely see the low-end of the 1-3” range as the latest trends have been for less snow in the metro area and southeast.

22416 FINAL SNOW MAP

Winds overnight will continue out of the north and northwest. Gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible overnight across the forecast area.

wind

Lows overnight will fall into the upper 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

THURSDAY: Scattered areas of snow will continue across the forecast area on Thursday morning. However, I do not anticipate any heavy snow like what is currently occurring this afternoon.

Through the day snow showers will continue across the forecast zones. Better chances for rain and snow will be in places across very eastern zone 1 in Ohio in the afternoon. Across very southern zone 1 and into zone 6 temperatures do look warm enough to support rain showers.

THU5PM

Although the area of low pressure will be well to the northeast of the region, the tight pressure gradient between it and the area of high pressure to the west will allow for strong winds to continue. Gusts of 35-45 mph will remain possible through the day on Thursday.

With low-level moisture still in place Thursday mostly cloudy to completely overcast skies will be in place. Highs will be in the low 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

thupan

Most of the snow should come to an end late Thursday night into early Friday as drier air works into the forecast area. While a few snow showers and flurries will be possible, I’m not anticipating much.

Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be in the upper teens to upper 20’s. The good news is the winds will really start to taper off overnight.

FRIDAY: An Area of high pressure will start to ridge in from the southwest on Friday. However, there is a weak upper level disturbance moving through the forecast area late in the day. While I think most of the day will be dry, a few isolated rain and snow showers may be possible.

500MBFRI

FRI4PM

Winds on Friday won’t be nearly as strong with sustained winds of 5-15 mph out of the west. With the upper level system rolling through mostly cloudy skies look to remain in place through the day.

fripan

WEEKEND: A warm front will lift across the forecast region late Friday night through Saturday. As it does warm air will be back in the forecast for the weekend.

satam

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. It does look like sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail on Saturday even with a front in place.

sat pan

Sunday another area of low pressure will move to the regions north bringing a cold front with it. This look to be very reminiscent of what happened last Friday.

ecmwfued---conus-126-C-mslpthkpcp6_white

While there will be a front moving across the region precipitation looks pretty limited at this time. However, winds do look to increase once again with gusts of 25-30 mph possible.  

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 50’s to mid/upper 60’s.