Zone 1 & 5 Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain Changing To Snow Wednesday. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An area of low pressure is developing across south Texas today. This will start to deepen as it moves to the north and northeast this evening and overnight. As it does rain and snow will enter the forecast for both zones 1 and 5.

satell

This evening clouds will thicken up and rain will start to move into the forecast area. Rain will start to enter southwestern and southern Indiana around 8-9 PM this evening.

8PM

By 11 pm to 12 am the initial surge of rain will be moving into the Indianapolis metro area. Across southern zone 1 and zone 5 rain will be falling, by this time, some of the rain will be very heavy.

11pm

As the rain moves north overnight most places will be warm enough to support all rain. However, places across very northern zone 1 will be at or just below freezing. So as the rain moves in to the north around 4-6 AM it could initially fall as freezing rain and sleet.

WED4AM

The freezing precipitation that does occur will be short-lived as warm air works in changing us all over to rain by 7-8 AM Wednesday morning.

Lows overnight will be in the low 30’s north to mid 40’s south.

WEDNESDAY – THURSDAY: Through the morning the low pressure system will move to the northeast through the Ohio Valley. Rain will continue to fall across zones 1 and 5. The changeover from rain to snow looks to start across western and northwestern zone 1 around 10 AM Wednesday morning.

WED10AM

By early Wednesday afternoon there may be a bit of a lull in rain coverage across a large portion of zone 1 and 5 with snow in northwestern zone 1 more towards the Attica/Lafayette area.

WED 1 PM

Through the afternoon rain will continue to fall with snow across western zone 1. By late afternoon into early evening the cold air will start to rush in from the northwest as the low moves east and winds shift out of a northerly direction. As this occurs a rain to snow changeover will start from west to east across zones 1 and 5.

Highs tomorrow will be in the low 30’s to mid 40’s southeast.

wedpanel

As the deepening area of low pressure moves to the regions south winds will increase as well. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will be likely, gusts of 35-45 mph appear likely with some higher gusts possible.

winds

Heavy rain does appear likely, especially from I-70 south where 1.5-2” of rain will be possible before we change over to snow. Farther to the south across zone 5 is where the better chance of those highest accumulations of rain will be, with some models even depicting over 2” of rain there. If this is realized then flooding will be a concern as well.

RAINFALL

The changeover from rain to snow in the Indianapolis area looks to occur around 5-7 PM Wednesday evening. We will likely transition to a sleet/rain/snow mix around 5-6 PM. However, by 6-7 PM the transition to all snow should be complete.

WED7PM

As the cold air surges in Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours most if not all precipitation across zones 1 and 5 will be snow by 10-11 PM Wednesday evening. While it will likely not be as impressive as what occurs earlier in the day to the west and north, some times of heavier snow bursts will remain likely.

THU1AM

Through the overnight into Thursday snow chances will remain across the forecast zones. While models are not real aggressive with overnight accumulations, some place could see an additional 1-2” of snow where the better snow bursts occur. This looks to be mainly across northern/eastern Indiana and into Ohio through the overnight hours.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 20’s north to low 30’s south. Winds will remain strong out of the northwest with gusts of 35-45 mph possible.

thupanel

Through the day on Thursday snow showers will remain possible as some upper level energy moves through. While most places will likely only see .10-.50” of new snowfall Thursday, places across very eastern Indiana and into Ohio could see around another 1” or so of new snow.

THU7AM

Snow looks to taper off from west to east through the late afternoon and into the evening hours Thursday. Likely ending in the Indianapolis area around 6-7 PM.

THU7PM

By 10-11 PM Thursday night snow should be out of the entire forecast area.

Here is the latest forecast snowfall map for the zones. The preliminary maps shows 1-3” across zone 1 and western zone 5. The heaviest snow will be across northwestern zone 1 towards Lafayette.

snowfall

I want to emphasize models have been very inconstant this year with forecasts even within 24 hours. Any small shift in the placement of the low, cold air, or moisture would change the forecast. We will continue to update you as needed.

Overnight Thursday mostly cloudy skies will be in place. Lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will start to build in from the southwest. However through the day an upper level piece of energy looks to move through the region. This will likely keep us with partly to mostly cloudy skies with perhaps a chance at an isolated rain or snow shower late in the day.

fripanel

Highs on Friday will be in the low 30’s to mid 40’s with winds from the west at 5-15 mph.

FRI

7 DAY FORECAST:

WEDNESDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS AS RAIN, THEN CHANGES TO SNOW ACROSS ILLINOIS & WESTERN/NORTHERN INDIANA, SOME HEAVY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S WEST TO MID 40’S SOUTHEAST. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IN AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, RAIN CHANGES TO ALL SNOW, SOME WILL BE HEAVY. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY.

THURSDAY: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE, THEN END LATE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S. SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS 12-20 MPH, GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: SNOW ENDS, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH. WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

SUNDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO LOW 60’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

MONDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN LATE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE? LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.