Zone 1 & 5 Fri Fcst Disc, Rain Late Sat/Sun, Winter Returns Next Week. #INWX #INDY

Home / Uncategorized / Zone 1 & 5 Fri Fcst Disc, Rain Late Sat/Sun, Winter Returns Next Week. #INWX #INDY

Video forecast: 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An area of low pressure continues to move to the north of the forecast area dragging a weak cold front with it. The pressure gradient around the low is very tight and as a result winds across the region are very strong. So far gusts of 40-45 mph have been reported across zones 1 and 5.

current

This afternoon and evening winds will remain strong with gusts of 45-55 mph not out of the question. Thats why a Wind Advisory is in place across the region until 7 PM.

wind adv

The weak cold front to our west will start to move through this afternoon into the evening hours. As it does some rain will develop along the front and move across Indiana and into Ohio. The latest HRRR model does show a little line of rain along the cold front moving through Indianapolis around 4-5 PM this evening.

5pm

By 7-8 PM some areas of rain will be possible in southern indiana and into Ohio.

8pm

By 10-11 PM this evening I expect all the rain showers to be out of the zones 1 and 5.

Rainfall totals this afternoon will be pretty light with .10-.30” possible under the more impressive areas of rain.

todrain

Overnight we will remain dry with some clouds sticking around across southern Indiana and southern Ohio.

Winds overnight will start to ease as well, as the low moves away from the forecast area.

Lows overnight will be in the upper 30’s north to around 50 south.

WEEKEND: Saturday looks to be the nicest day of the weekend. The area of low pressure will be off to the northeast and a frontal boundary will be in place to the north. This will allow for mostly sunny and warm conditions across the forecast area. However, farther south across southern zone 5 some cloud cover does look possible.

RPM Cloud Cover
RPM Cloud Cover

Winds on Saturday will not be nearly as strong with gusts of 15-20 mph possible.

windsat

Highs Saturday will be in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s. 

sat

Overnight Saturday into Sunday clouds will start to increase across the forecast region and rain will be back in the forecast. By 1-2 AM some rain showers will be possible across southern zone 1 and zone 5.

Overnight a larger area of rain will start to through Illinois likely entering western Indiana around 4-6 AM Sunday morning.


sat1am

With a little instability in place I won’t totally rule out a chance of an isolated rumble of thunder with this area if rain.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 30’s north, but where there is rain it will keep temperatures in the 40’s to around 50°. So this will be an all rain event.

Sunday morning the area of rain and perhaps a couple of isolated t’storms will be moving to the east across the forecast zones. Right now it does look like I-70 southward will be the favored track for the rain.

sun7am

By 9-10 am Sunday morning the heaviest rain looks to be exiting Indiana and moving into Ohio.

Through the late morning and afternoon hours the heavier area of rain will move out of the forecast area. By mid-day we will be drier, but at some isolated to scattered rain showers can’t be ruled out.

sun1pm

sun4pm

Regarding new rainfall totals the heaviest totals look to be across southern zone 1 and zone 5 where a swath of .60-1.2” will be possible. However, higher totals can’t be ruled out locally as models are showing 1.5-2” of new rain in some areas!

NAM 4km
NAM 4km

 

GFS
GFS

We do look to start Sunday off with clouds, but as the rain moves through there may be some breaks in cloud cover through the afternoon.

Highs Sunday will be in the upper 40’s north to low 60’s south.

sunday

MONDAY: An area of high pressure will start to work its way in on Monday. This will give us dry conditions to start the week. Through the day on Monday I would anticipate a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Highs will be around 40 north to around 50 south with a light northeast wind at 6-12 mph.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: We will be watching a couple of areas of low pressure develop to the regions south and west next week. While the majority of the models are taking these systems to the south and east of the region, we are seeing some models trend these farther west. If this were to occur then better snow chances would need to be introduced to the forecast.

surface gif

Regardless, by mid to late next week a trough will move in and we will get back on the active northwesterly flow. With the northwesterly flow in place a more active pattern for clipper type snow events is likely.

500mbgif

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, SOME CLOUDS SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, 50% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S NORTH TO LOW 60’S SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH, COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40 NORTH TO 50 SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S AND 40’S. EAST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE? LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE? HIGHS IN THE 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WEST, CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.

THURSDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, A FEW SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.