Zone 6 & 7 Forecast Discussion, Temperatures Warm & Nice Weekend Ahead! JT.

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VIDEO FORECAST:

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An area of high pressure continues to move southeast into the region today. However, the front that moved across the state last night has become stationary across southern Illinois and Indiana. Because of that we are seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area, with some breaks for sunshine.

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Overnight warm air aloft will create a temperature inversion. This will once again trap moisture close to the surface so fog and some drizzle will be possible. Temperature to the north and east across zones 6/7 will be right at or just below freezing so some freezing fog/drizzle is possible.

With this being said, models have really struggled greatly with this over the past few days. They continue to show large coverage areas of fog, then those are never realized. So while I think it unwise to leave it out of the discussion, I would run on the side of caution before anticipating widespread freezing fog/drizzle tonight.

Across zone 7 the models have been indicating there could be some light freezing rain between 3 am and 7 am. However, I’m not anticipating any serious accumulations.

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THURSDAY – FRIDAY: A warm front will be in place to the south and southwest of the region on Thursday. This will keep us mostly cloudy to completely overcast through the day. With the front in place to the south I won’t totally rule out an isolated shower, but overall a mostly dry day can be anticipated.

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Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 30’s north to mid 50’s south closer to the warm front.

Thursday night into Friday morning the warm front will start to lift northward across the forecast zones. As it does strong southerly winds will quickly surge warm air into the region.

Lows overnight Thursday will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Late Thursday into early Friday a very weak surface boundary will move across zones 6 and 7. While we will leave in the chance for a very isolated shower, overall trends suggest a dry day across the forecast area.

Highs on Friday will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 50’s to low 70’s.

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That’s 20-30°+ warmer than average!

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Possibly the bigger story Friday will be the very strong winds. With a high off to the east and a strong low to the north, pressure gradients will become very tight through the day Friday. As the do, winds will be on the increase out of the southwest. Sustained winds of 12-25 mph are in the forecast with strong gusts of 40-55 mph as well.

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WEEKEND: Saturday we will continue with the warm temperatures and mostly sunny conditions. The good news is winds will slack off for the start of the weekend.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50’s to near 70° south.

Late Saturday into Saturday night clouds will be on the increase from west to east across the area. Rain will move into zones 6-7 from west to east around midnight and move eastward through the overnight.

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By early Sunday morning most of the rain will be out of the forecast zones, with only some light showers sticking around southern portion of zone 6 through early afternoon.

Highs Sunday will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

NEXT WEEK: While we will start the week out with above average temperatures, a large trough looks to move in Tuesday. This will be associated with an impressive low pressure system that is forecast to move up the east coast.

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While the models are in good agreement that this will move to the regions east, we will continue to watch for any changes or trends.

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7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: MORNING PATCHY FREEZING FOG, ISO. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEST INTO ILL. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY, WARMING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, MILD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WEST? LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

FRIDAY: A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, UNSEASONABLY WARM, VERY WINDY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS IN/OH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO LOW 70’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-25 MPH, GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, CLOUDS SOUTH & WEST LATE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. WEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, 40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, RAIN ENDING. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW CHANCE? LOWS IN THE 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WEST, CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FAR EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20’S.