Zone 1/5 Fcst Disc, Record Highs Possible! Winters back next week. #INWX #ILWX JT.

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VIDEO FORECAST:

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An area of high pressure continues to move southeast into the region today. However, the front that moved across the state last night has become stationary across southern Indiana. Because of that we are seeing mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area, with some breaks for sunshine.

surface

This afternoon and evening clouds will remain. However, there will be a weak piece of upper level energy moving through. Also aloft temperatures will be cooler so this will increase lapse rates. So by 5 PM or so some instability driven snow showers will be possible across zone 1 in Indiana and Ohio.

5pm

However, by the time we get past sunset we will lose the instability and any snow shower threat will quickly diminish.

10pm

While some quick bursts of snow could put down a quick coating or a couple of tenths of an inch this afternoon/evening, I think accumulations will be widely scattered across the zone.

hrrrsnow

Overnight we will start to see some warm air work in aloft. This may create somewhat of a temperature inversion overnight. If this occurs areas of fog and light drizzle could develop. The temperatures at the surface look to fall right at or just below freezing across zone 1 so any fog or drizzle that develops would freeze overnight.

hrrr_2016021716_015_39.79--86.13

With this being said, models have really struggled greatly with this over the past few days. They continue to show large coverage areas of fog, then those are never realized. So while I think it unwise to leave it out of the discussion, I would run on the side of caution before anticipating widespread freezing fog/drizzle tonight.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: A warm front will be in place to the south and southwest of the region on Thursday. This will keep us mostly cloudy to completely overcast through the day.

thu

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 30’s north to mid 50’s south closer to the warm front.

Thursday night into Friday morning the warm front will start to lift northward across the forecast zones. As it does strong southerly winds will quickly surge warm air into the region.

Lows overnight Thursday will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Friday a very weak surface boundary will move across zones 1 and 5. While we will leave in the chance for a very isolated shower, overall trends suggest a dry day across the forecast area.

The main question will be cloud cover and temperatures. Models continue a back and forth struggle with this. If we remain overcast through Friday highs in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s.

fri

However, the NAM 12km is much more optimistic with sunshine showing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies over the region. If this were to verify then some record-breaking temperatures would be achievable. The record high in Indianapolis Friday is 69°, if we can get some sunshine, record-breaking highs in the low 70’s are not out of the question!

Possibly the bigger story Friday will be the very strong winds. With a high off to the east and a strong low to the north, pressure gradients will become very tight through the day Friday. As the do, winds will be on the increase out of the southwest. Sustained winds of 12-25 mph are in the forecast with strong gusts of 40-50 mph as well.

winds

WEEKEND: Saturday we will continue with the warm temperatures and mostly sunny conditions. The good news is winds will slack off for the start of the weekend.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50’s to near 70° south.

sat

Late Saturday into Saturday night clouds will be on the increase from west to east across the area. Rain looks to move into zones 1 and 5 after midnight from west to east.

sun7am

Sunday rain looks to come to an end through the morning hours. By Sunday afternoon there may actually be some breaks in the clouds and some sunshine could get through. So even Sunday doesn’t look to be a total washout.

Highs Sunday will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s.

NEXT WEEK: While we will start the week out with above average temperatures, a large trough looks to move in Tuesday.

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This will be associated with an impressive low pressure system that is forecast to move up the east coast. While the models are in good agreement that this will move to the regions east, we will continue to watch for any changes or trends.

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7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: MORNING PATCHY FREEZING FOG, ISO. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEST INTO ILL. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY, WARMING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, MILD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WEST? LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

FRIDAY: A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, UNSEASONABLY WARM, VERY WINDY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS IN/OH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO LOW 70’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-25 MPH, GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, CLOUDS SOUTH & WEST LATE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50’S TO UPPER 60’S. WEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, 40% CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, RAIN ENDING. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S NORTH TO MID 60’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW CHANCE? LOWS IN THE 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WEST, CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FAR EAST. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20’S.