Zone 1 & 5 Tuesday Forecast Discussion, Wintry Precip. Ends South, Spring-Like Weekend! JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: What’s left of the rain and snow in southwestern Indiana will continue to move off to the southeast this evening as the area of low pressure move to the south and east as well.

fri7pm

Overnight the main area of precipitation will be out of western portions of zone 5. However, there will be some warmer air working in aloft. With that in place we will see another inversion take place and moisture will once again become trapped near the surface. So once again fog and possibly even some drizzle/snow showers will remain possible overnight.

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Temperatures across zone 1 and at least into northern zone 5 will be at or just below freezing. So any fog or drizzle that does form will freeze on contact.

Here is the forecast visibility from the RPM model by early Wednesday morning.

 

RPM visibility WED AM
RPM Visibility WED AM

WEDNESDAY – THURSDAY: Wednesday an area of high pressure will start to build into the forecast region. However, another upper level disturbance will move through the forecast area by late morning and into the evening hours. With this in place it could produce some isolated light snow showers north or isolated rain showers south. Overall, most places will remain dry Wednesday.

wed12pm

 Wednesday night another temperature inversion will be in place so fog will once again become a concern. With lows in near 20 north to around 30 south. Any fog that does form will once again freeze on surfaces.

fogthuam
RPM Forecast Visibility

Thursday we will watch a warm front approach from the regions south. This will increase cloud cover across the forecast area, so we will call for upper 30’s north to mid/upper 50’s south for highs, that will be heavily dependent on the warm front location. While shower chances look very minimal, there may be enough lift along the front to help some develop, but overall these look to be very isolated in nature.

namthu

Thursday night the warm front will continue to lift northward through the area. As it does strong southerly winds will pick up and warm air will quickly start to surge in. Lows overnight Thursday will be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s.

FRIDAY: Friday will be unseasonably warm for February with highs warming into the mid 50’s to perhaps right around 70° in southern portions of the forecast area!

fri

There will be a weak front passing through the forecast area on Friday. By early afternoon on Friday the front will start to move into eastern Illinois. Ahead of this front a few isolated to widely scattered rain showers will develop across western Indiana and move east across zone 1 and 5 through the afternoon and evening.

fri7pm

These showers look to be pretty light in nature as the front will be weak and dew points will only be in the mid 40’s to around 50°.

Winds on Friday will impressive as well. As the front lifts north winds will increase from the south/southwest. Sustained winds of 12-25 mph can be expected. Gusts will be very impressive with 35-50 mph wind gusts possible!

INDWIND

WEEKEND: We look to continue with the unseasonably warm temperatures into this weekend. Saturday will likely be the better of the two days as surface high pressure builds into the forecast area.

This will keep us with mostly sunny skies across most of Illinois with perhaps more clouds across southern zone 5. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s!

sat

Saturday night a weak area of low pressure at the surface will move towards the forecast area increasing clouds overnight.

Lows Saturday night will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Sunday rain showers looks to enter western Indiana early in the morning and spread eastward through the day. Right now these look to be on the light side with no significant rainfall anticipated.

sunrain

Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 40’s to upper 50’s.

LONG-RANGE: Looking into the longer range the models do remain active next week. You can see via the 500 mb flow several disturbances will be rolling through.

 

500 MB flow
500 MB flow

Also via the CMC model you can see the snowfall forecast through the end of next week calling for snow across northern IL and into WI. As we have said and learned many times this year, these systems like to come south as time goes on, so we will watch for at least the potential for wintry weather next week.

snow

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EARLY. THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER NORTH/RAIN SHOWER SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, WARMING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, MILD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WEST? LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

FRIDAY: A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, UNSEASONABLY WARM, VERY WINDY. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS IN/OH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO NEAR 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-25 MPH, GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SATURDAY: SUNNY NORTH, MORE CLOUDS ACROSS ZONE 5/6, VERY NICE. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, 30% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO UPPER 50’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE OF A RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO AROUND 40.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S TO LOWER 30’S.

TUESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, SNOW CHANCES WEST? LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S TO LOW 30’S.