Zone 6 & 7 Monday Forecast Discussion, Freezing Fog & Wintry Precipitation. JT.

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Short and long range video forecast. M

Forecast Discussion: 

EVENING – TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy to completely overcast skies continues across zones 6 and 7 as low level moisture remains in place. There is a little bit of rain and snow moving into western portions of Illinois this afternoon.

now

While this will continue east this afternoon and evening I’m not anticipating any significant problems from it.

7pm

Overnight temperatures aloft will be warmer than temperatures closer to the surface, this will create a thermal inversion, trapping moisture at the surface. With this in place and snow on the ground dense fog will develop once again overnight. Temperatures overnight will be right at to just below freezing, so freezing fog will become a concern once again. You can see the very low visibilities via the latest RPM model.

RPM Visability
RPM Visibility

I will mention some light freezing drizzle could be a concern across very western Illinois as well after midnight.

Lows overnight will be in the mid 20’s north to around 32 south.

TUESDAY: Another clipper system will be moving towards the region overnight. By 6-8 AM Tuesday morning precipitation will be entering the western portions of Illinois moving southeast. I do think this may start out as freezing rain/sleet as temperatures at the surface are below freezing, but aloft are just above 32°.

8amtue
TUE 8 AM

Through the morning the precipitation will continue to the southeast across zones 6/7. While I do think initially places will start out as freezing rain, colder air will be working in aloft, so by late morning into early afternoon a mix of rain/sleet/snow will be possible. However, across southern portions of zone 6 temperatures will warm enough through the morning to support all rain.

By early afternoon models show sub-freezing temperatures working in aloft. So I do think we will see more snow start to fall across northern zone 6 and into zone 7. This currently looks to happen around the 1-2 PM time frame. However, aloft temperatures will still be near freezing even with the colder air working in. So I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a primarily of a rain event.

1pmtue
TUE 1 PM

By 7-8 PM Tuesday evening most of the precipitation will be off to the east and southeast of the forecast zones with only a few rain and snow showers lingering.

TUE 7 PM TUE
TUE 7 PM TUE

While the NAM model is more aggressive with snowfall bringing 1-2” of new snow in localized areas. The latest trends from the RPM/EURO/GEM/RGEM would suggest little to no snow.

Overall, I think places that do see snow Tuesday should anticipate and inch or less.

snow

Regarding freezing rain and ice potential I think most places will see less than .10” Tuesday.

ince

While the precipitation looks to move out of the region late in the afternoon and evening on Tuesday low-level moisture looks to stick around. With warmer air aloft and a temperature inversion in place yet again, more fog looks to develop. The RPM model shows the reduced visibility overnight.

wedamfog

With lows near freezing once again Tuesday into Wednesday freezing fog could once again become a threat in areas.

Wednesday we will start out the day with very low visibilities with that fog in place. However, through the day we will see an upper level vorticity max move through the region. While we will be pretty dry I will leave in the chance at an isolated to widely scattered rain or snow shower.

wed500

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 30’s to mid-40’s.

Wednesday night an area of high pressure will be in place. Overall we will call for partly skies with lows in the upper teens north to around 30 south.

Thursday the area of high pressure will move off to the region east. A warm front associated with a developing low pressure system will be just to the region south on Thursday. This will bring in some clouds through the day.

wfthi

Highs will be in the upper 30’s north to mid-50’s south.

Through the overnight Thursday into Friday the warm front south will move north across Illinois. This will allow for lows overnight to be on the mild side. Lows will be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s!

Friday the warm from will be to the regions north and a very strong southerly flow of air will allow for Spring-like temperatures to return to the forecast area.

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 50’s to mid-60’s.

A weak cold front will pass through the forecast areas as well Friday. While I do think it will partly to mostly cloudy on Friday I’m not anticipating much in the way of rainfall. The combination of an overall weak front and lower levels of moisture will hinder rain chances.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17

However, winds in Friday will be very strong. Sustained winds of 10-25 MPH will be possible with gusts of 35-50 mph possible as well!

wind

WEEKEND: For the weekend Saturday looks to be the best day as we expect sunny to mostly sunny conditions for most of the day.

Temperatures on Saturday will remain mild for February despite the cold front passage the day before. Highs will be in the low 50’s to mid 60’s.

Saturday night we will watch a system approach from the west that will bring in clouds a precipitation chances. Right now we will see a bit of rain and snow, but obviously temperatures will be crucial in determining that so we will have to fine-tune it as we get closer.

satnight

Rain chances will remain in the forecast to end the weekend.

Sunday will be cooler than the start of the weekend with highs in the mid 40’s to mid-50’s.  

7 DAY FORECAST:

TUESDAY: MORNING FREEZING FOG. MOSTLY CLOUDY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH, RAIN FAR SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTH TO MID 40’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OF FLURRY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

THURSDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO MID 50’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY, MILD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEST? LOWS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

FRIDAY: A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, UNSEASONABLY WARM, VERY WINDY. SHOWERS NORTH? HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

SATURDAY: SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, NICE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50’S TO MID 60’S.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN AND/OR SNOW WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40’S TO MID 50’S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, CHANCE OF A RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO AROUND 40.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLEARING AND COLDER. LOWS IN THE 20’S.