Evening zone/commercial update. Timing changes but forecast on track. #INWX #ILWX #OHWX

Home / Uncategorized / Evening zone/commercial update. Timing changes but forecast on track. #INWX #ILWX #OHWX

Good evening a quick rather simple update here as we are fine tuning the timing of the arrival of snow tomorrow. The models have slowed down by about 5 hours tonight which is not a huge shock given their performance all Winter. Right now after looking over the brand new RPM model here is what we have with timing. We think its handling things the best tonight in my opinion.

21316 11AM

21316 130PM

21316 5PM

21316 11PM
Based off of what we are seeing right now data is ranging from 9am-1pm from west to east with start time of snow..not one piece of data agrees on the start time actually. Like I said I feel like the RPM has best handle. Still suspect winds to kick up ~1pm out of the SE ~10-20MPH. Temps for the duration of the event will be in the upper teens north of I70 and around 19-22 from I 70 south. While getting into the mid-upper 20s down along the river Sunday. Temps aloft are well below freezing obviously with temps around 15 degrees at 4,500ft. According to sounding data we are saturated completely by lunch so we really feel thats when the snow starts in central portions of the forecast area. With that being said here is where we think totals end up based on how much liquid the model is forecasting and factoring in the higher ratios due to colder temps. 

RPM QPF SNOW 21316

We still have a hunch that this upper level energy will deliver some good snow totals..its hard to go against dynamics like this and its what kept us above the rest back in Jan was going off of dynamics.

21316 500MB VORT

I still forecast no sunshine Monday with residual snow showers around. Ill have another update around 7/8am Sunday. If you have questions please let me know. M.