Zone 1 & 5 Forecast Discussion, Very Cold & Snow Potential. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: Clouds and some snow showers continue across Indiana this afternoon. This is as an upper level disturbance moves to the north of the forecast area and a weak front moves to the southeast.

currentcon

This afternoon and into the evening, areas of snow will remain possible not only thanks to the weak surface front, but also lapse rates aloft will be pretty steep. This will help generate some instability snow showers, some of which could produce some quick bursts of snow through the evening.

7pm

Lapse Rates
Lapse Rates

Accumulations through the evening will be scattered across the state. More common totals of .20-.50” will be possible where the snow showers impact, a few places of .50-1” can’t be ruled out. Much like what happened across the state Tuesday evening.

tonightsnow

Overnight we will lose what instability we have gained through the daytime hours. So by 9-10 PM this evening any snow showers will quickly start to fade out. However, a few lake effect snow showers may linger across northern portions of zone 1.

11pm

Lows overnight will be in the single digits to low teens. Wind chills will be below zero to right around 0 Saturday morning.

windchills

Overnight winds will remain strong at times with gusts of 25-35 mph possible. With that in mind the places that have snow on the ground or see snow this evening will see it blow around.

wind

SATURDAY: An arctic area of high pressure will build into the forecast area. This will keep Saturday pretty chilly with partly to mostly cloudy conditions.

sathigh

Highs on Saturday will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds through the day Saturday will start to taper off, but gusts up to 25 mph or so will remain possible through the day. Wind chills will still be bitter cold through the day making it feel more like the single digits to low teens across zones 1/5.

Overnight Saturday the high will move off to the regions northeast and we will be watching a clipper system come in from the northwest. However, the overnight hours across the state look to be dry.

SUNDAY: Snow will start to approach the forecast zones very late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. By 7-8 AM Sunday morning some snow looks to be entering western portions of Indiana. Looks like it will be relatively light at this point in time.

sun8am

Through the morning the initial punch of snow will move to the east as the clipper moves in. It looks like there will be the potential for some brief areas of more intense snow with the initial surge.

sun1pm

In the afternoon there may be a bit of a lull in activity across Indiana before the main round gets here. It’s around 3-4 pm snow would start to enter western Ohio.

By 5-7 PM the low pressure system will start to move closer to the forecast area and this will bring the more persistent snowfall into Indiana and Ohio. Again, periods of more intense snow will be possible.

sun7pm

Highs on Sunday will be in the low 20’s to low 30’s.

Late evening into the overnight hours snow will still be falling across most of the area with perhaps better snow chances coming to an end across western portions of zone 5 shortly after midnight.

Overnight Sunday into Monday snow chances will continue, although not as widespread.

mon4am

MONDAY: By 7-8 AM Monday morning snow will remain possible, especially across zone 1 and then east into Ohio.

Through the morning hours on Monday snow will start to taper off from west to east. However, with some leftover moisture I think some light snow showers and flurries will be possible through afternoon. Mainly across the I-70 corridor in Indiana and into Ohio.

Obviously the exact track, timing, and snowfall amounts will have to be fine-tuned as the mesoscale details become clearer. We will have more updates for you this weekend.

Right now current thinking for snowfall would be more along the lines of the 12z NAM with 2-4” possible from the I-70 area northward. With 1-2” south of there. Again, this is something we will have to fine-tune as more data becomes available.

12z NAM
12z NAM

Winds Late Sunday through Monday will be strong at times with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. So once again, blowing and drifting snow will be possible.

** While models have backed off of the southern winter storm system for Monday, I do not want to fail to mention that I think the threat is still there. Right now modeling is not handling the overall synoptic situation all that well. So while confidence in a southern storm system is growing lower, it is still not completely out of the realm of possibility and we will mention it in the forecast discussion for now. We will continue to watch data and bring you updates on that as needed. **

MONDAY – TUESDAY: The snow looks to move out of the region on Monday afternoon. As it does the rest of Monday evening will remain quiet.

Late Monday night into Tuesday another clipper will come in from the northwest. This will have the chance to bring another quick shot of snow with it. However, temperatures south of the low may be supportive of a rain/snow mix or even an all rain event. This is something we will have to iron out as we get closer to next Tuesday.

tue

There will not be a video today, but Chief Meteorologist Michael Clark will be in the office this weekend brining you updates on the snow as they are needed.

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, WINDY, AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE, ESPECIALLY WEST. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO MID 20’S SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

MONDAY: CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE? HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 20’S

TUESDAY: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, RAIN AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO UPPER 40’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, CHANCE OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

FRIDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 50’S TO MID 60’S POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S.