Zone 6 & 7 Thursday Forecast Discussion, Snowy Times Ahead. JT. #ILWX

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: An area of high pressure remains in place across the region today. This has allowed for dry air to work in and in result has given way to mostly sunny skies.

current

Through the evening we will continue with some sunshine. However, towards sunset clouds will start to thicken up across Illinois ahead of a clipper system that will be moving in from the northwest.

By 10-11 PM snow will start to move into western Illinois, possibly impacting western zone 7 by this time frame.

11pm

Overnight the upper level area of vorticity will spread to the southeast across the southern half of Illinois. As it does snow will spread across zones 6/7. By 3-4 AM Friday morning snow looks to be falling across a large portion of the forecast area. Some of this will be heavy at times, I think especially as you get under the 500 mb vorticity max.

4am

Lows overnight will be in the middle teens to low 20’s.

FRIDAY: By 7-8 AM Friday morning snow will still be ongoing across at least southern zone 7 and into zone 6.

7am

Through the morning a ridge of high pressure will move in spreading drier air in as it does. It does look like the lower levels will remain saturated enough through mid to late morning to support snow. However, by late morning into early afternoon the dry air will work in shutting off any remaining showers.

Through the afternoon the area of high pressure will start to build in. As it does I do think we will see more sunshine in place. However aloft, lapse rates (temperatures decreasing with height) will be relatively high. Especially across zone 7 and northern zone 6. With some instability aloft I think it will prove to be enough to generate some afternoon snow showers across eastern portions of zones 6 & 7. Some of which will be capable of some quick bursts of snow.

fri7pm

Through tomorrow evening snow totals of .5-1” are more likely. However, across zone 6 where the upper level vorticity maximum moves through, I think there will be a slice of area that gets 1-2” of snow.

NAM 4km
NAM 4km

 

RPM
RPM

After sunset Friday night the snow showers will quickly fade as the temperature contrast becomes less from surface and aloft.

Friday night into Saturday winds do look to pick up across the area. Some models even suggesting gusts of 25-38 MPH. So blowing snow could become a problem with those winds.

Another issue will be subzero wind chills at times overnight as lows will only be in the single digits and teens.

windchill

SATURDAY: Saturday and area of high pressure will build into the forecast region. This will allow for mostly sunny conditions across the region to start the weekend.

sathigh

Highs on Saturday will be in the middle teens to mid-20. However, winds look to remain strong at times with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. So wind chills in the single digits to even around 0 will be possible!

Overnight Saturday a leading piece of energy ahead of a bigger system will move into Illinois. As it does an area of snow looks to move into the state after 5 AM Sunday morning.

SUNDAY – TUESDAY: Snow showers look to continue across the region through the day on Sunday. This initial round could bring a few inches of snow across zones 6/7 through the daytime hours Sunday.

Sunday
Sunday

By late Sunday night into Monday morning the initial round of snow looks to move out, but we will be watching the main system get its act together to the south and southeast. By early Monday morning into Monday afternoon snow looks to be moving into zone 6.

Through the day the center of low pressure looks to move to the northeast. Per this solution snow would continue to fall across zone 6 and perhaps zone 7 as well.

Monday
Monday 7 PM

Overall there is an increasing possibility of a significant snow even Monday across at least portions of the forecast zones. However, the exact timing, placement, and accumulation numbers will have to be fine-tuned over the several days.

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW SHOWERS NORTH IND. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE, ESPECIALLY WEST. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE, SOME HEAVY?. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE, SOME HEAVY? HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20’S. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO AROUND 40.

WEDNESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S TO LOW 40’S.