#ILWX #INWX #INDY Zone 1/7 option. Snow chances Fri. Monitoring Winter storm potential early nxt wk.

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Video forecast: M.

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy skies continue across the region this afternoon with even some snow to the regions south and west. This is associated with an upper level vorticity maximum that is moving to the southeast across the Midwest.

currently

While this will bring some light snow to western and perhaps southern portions of zone 7 in Illinois, it will not make it to zone 1.

This afternoon the swath of snow to the west will move into portions of zone 7. While I think a lot of this will be relatively light a couple decent bursts of snow can’t be ruled out. In fact, with some decent lapse rates still in place across zone 1 a few snow showers can’t be totally ruled out this afternoon, mainly across eastern Indiana and into Ohio.

5pm

Through this evening times of snow will remain possible across zone 7. However, after 7-8 PM the upper level vorticity max will exit to the southeast. As it does it will take any associated lift with it. With dry air in place and the source of lift becoming weaker, snow showers look to taper off through late evening into the overnight.

I think most of the snow showers will come to an end between 1-3 AM tonight.

thu1am

While no significant accumulations are in the forecast over western and southern zone 7, a coating to perhaps around .50″ will be possible where snow occurs.

snow

Lows overnight will be in the upper single digits to upper teens. However, wind chills will make it feel more like 0 in locations.

THURSDAY: High pressure will build in quickly on Thursday. This will bring some cold, dry air with it. For that reason we will call for decreasing clouds through the day. I think by the afternoon at least mostly sunny conditions will be likely across the region.

thuhigh

Highs Thursday will be in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.

Thursday night clouds will start to thicken back up and snow will start to move in from the west and northwest as another clipper system moves through the region. By 2-3 AM Friday snow looks to be moving into western and northern zone 7.

FRI 3 AM
FRI 3 AM

FRIDAY: Through the overnight hours it will spread east and southeast across zone 7 and into Indiana after 4-5 AM.

RPM 4 AM FRI
RPM 4 AM FRI

Right now the leading edge is timed to get right around the Indy metro around 7-9 AM so it could impact the morning rush hour.

FRI 7 AM
FRI 7 AM

Through the day the clipper will continue across the region. It looks like by early to mid-afternoon the snow will be exiting Illinois, but continue to fall across Indiana and western Ohio. I do think some of this snow will come down at a pretty good clip at times.

12 PM RPM FRI
FRI 12 PM

Snow looks to move into Ohio and out of Indiana around 4-6 PM Friday evening leaving only some snow showers and flurries behind.

FRI 7 PM
FRI 7 PM

While some of the models are not as aggressive with this, the upper level vorticity maximum looks pretty impressive with this storm. The latest RPM model places 1-3” of new snow across the forecast area late Thursday night through late Friday evening. That is a preliminary forecast, we will have to fine-tune the placement, arrival, and accumulations over the next 24 hours or so.

snowfallfri

An area of high pressure will build into the region pretty quickly Friday night into Saturday. As it does dry air will quickly dry out the environment Friday night. So while some lingering snow showers look to remain possible into the early overnight, mainly across eastern Indiana and Ohio, the snow will completely end by early Saturday morning.

Lows overnight will be cold with temperatures in the single digits to middle teens.

WEEKEND: An area of high pressure will build into the forecast area on Saturday. This will allow for quiet conditions for the daytime hours. Overall it looks to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy through the day Saturday.

sat high

Winds do look to be a little gusty through the day with gusts up to 20-30 mph possible.

Highs will be in the middle teens to upper 20’s. However, wind chills may make it feel more like lower to middle teens at times

Sunday through mid to late afternoon looks pretty quiet across the region. However, we will be watching a couple of areas of low pressure to the regions west and northwest.

By late Sunday these two areas of low pressure look to phase to the southwest of the forecast zones. Depending on where and when this occurs a winter storm setup could be on tap for the region by late in the day on Sunday into Sunday night.

MONDAY – TUESDAY: Forecast guidance has remained persistent in phasing the two lows and tracking the single low through the Ohio/ Tennessee Valley early next week. While exact timing and location is something that will have to be fine-tuned over the next several days, at least the possibility for a winter storm event exists late Sunday through early Tuesday across the forecast area.

gfsmon

The latest probabilistic outlook from the Weather Prediction Center Shows a 50-70% chance of a significant snowfall event early next week. Significant being 5″+.

sigsnow prob

7 DAY FORECAST

THURSDAY: AM SNOW SHOWER, THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6-12 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20’S SOUTH. SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW NORTH & EAST. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW ENDING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

SATURDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN ILLINOIS LATE? HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDS, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE LATE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, SNOW POSSIBLE SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE, SOME HEAVY? HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO MID 30’S. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20’S. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO AROUND 40.

WEDNESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO MID 40’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.