Zone option 1,5,6,7. Snow continues this evening. Details on tonight/next 7 days. #ILWX #INWX #INDY

Home / Uncategorized / Zone option 1,5,6,7. Snow continues this evening. Details on tonight/next 7 days. #ILWX #INWX #INDY

Video forecast:

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: Snow showers continue across the forecast area as energy continues to spin around the upper level trough/low.

current

Tonight scattered snow showers will continue through the region. The development of these will be aided as we will have some positive vorticity advection at upper levels.

8pmton

Late this evening into the early overnight drier air looks to move into zone 6/7. This would allow for most of the snow showers to shut off around 3-4 AM from west to east. However, across zone 1/5 moisture looks to remain in place and so will scattered snow showers.

WED3AMTON

The latest HRRR model does show some more light snow accumulations through 3 AM tonight. While .2-.5” will be more common, a few localized areas could see .5-1” under the heaviest areas of snowfall.

snowfal

Lows tonight will be in the teens in most locations. However, with wind gusts of 25-35 mph possible, wind chills overnight will be just below zero to low single digits by 6-7 AM Wednesday morning.

wind chill

WEDNESDAY: Through the morning hours on Wednesday drier air will work into zones and the upper level trough will pull to the east of the region. So overall, snow chances will decrease through the morning hours on Wednesday, eventually coming to an end Wednesday afternoon.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper teens north to around 30 south.

Winds on Wednesday will remain strong, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

By late Wednesday evening into the overnight we will be watching another clipper system that will impact zones 5, 6, and perhaps southwestern zone 7 . It looks like snow will move into western Illinois around 8-9 PM Wednesday evening and spread southeast through the overnight hours.

WED10PM

This will spread into portions of zone 5 through the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday. This looks to occur likely around 10-11PM Wednesday night.

While there will be accumulating snow with this event, low amounts of moisture will likely limit the overall potential of the storm system. Right now it looks like .5-1” is possible in locations.

snowfallrom

Lows overnight Wednesday will be in the single digits to upper teens.

THURSDAY: As the clipper system exits very early Thursday morning an area of high pressure will quickly build in behind it. As it does clouds will be on the decrease through the daytime hours.

sathigh

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

FRIDAY: Friday we will start off quiet as the area of high pressure moves off to the regions east.

As the high moves off we will be watching yet another clipper system move into the region through the morning hours Friday. This could bring another chance at some accumulating snow across portions of the forecast area.

fri clipper

There is some discrepancy between models. Some have a more northerly track, some a southerly track, and some actually have little to no snow. With the upper level energy that will be in place I think there will be some snow across portions of the region. But exactly where and how much is something we will have to fine-tune over the next few days.

Highs on Friday will be in the mid 20’s north to around 40 south.

WEEKEND: An area of high pressure will build in for the day on Saturday. This will allow us to start the weekend quiet, but cold.

sathigh

Highs on Saturday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20’s.

Sunday we will be watching a couple areas of low pressure. One that comes down out of Canada and one on the East side of the Rockies. These will meet up and are forecast to phase during the afternoon on Sunday.

A couple of solutions present themselves here with this system. The first and what seems the most logical is that the area of high pressure would move off to the east leaving cold air behind. As the lows phase, the storm tracks across the Ohio Valley region and brings accumulating snow to the forecast area. 

gfsmon

The second would be that the area of high pressure is in place to the north of the Midwest/Great Lakes region. While this would give us very cold air, it would also suppress the system to the south. 

Regardless, this event is still a ways out and there is obviously some uncertainty. Models will likely show several different solutions before arriving at the correct one. So make sure to check back as we will be fine-tuning the forecast through the week. Right now a 90 model ensemble average places the threat for accumulating snow in the area in darkest greens. Check back. 

2916 snow

7 DAY FORECAST

WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW LATE. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SNOW POSSIBLE WEST AND SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY.

THURSDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S FAR SOUTH. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE LATE. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20’S.

FRIDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE, PERHAPS RAIN FAR SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS, VERY COLD. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH.

SATURDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20’S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEST, COLD. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH.

SUNDAY: CLOUDY, SNOW CHANCES INCREASING WEST TO EAST. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH. ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE, SOME HEAVY? LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20’S SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY, SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO MID 20’S.

TUESDAY: SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY, SNOW ENDING. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20’S.