Zone 1 & 5 Snowfall AM Forecast Update. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

CURRENTLY: Areas of snow shower continue rotating through the state this morning around the main area of low pressure. While they are scattered some of these are producing some quick, intense bursts of snow. However, a lot of this is only sticking on roofs and grassy surfaces as temperatures are hovering just above freezing.

current

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AFTERNOON/EVENING: Snow showers will continue to move across the area this afternoon, but the main feature will focus on is an upper level vorticity max moving across southern Indiana. This will help enhance snowfall around and just south of I-70 this afternoon.

500vort

While some quick bursts of snow will be possible this morning the better chance of some heavier snow will come after the noon hour. The latest HRRR model shows some very heavy bursts of snow across south central Indiana around 2-3 PM. Some of these may initially mix with some rain before changing over to all snow this evening.

3pm

The high resolution models show times of 1” an hour snowfall rates. With a little bit of instability in the environment, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some thunder snow this afternoon/evening in the heavier cells.

By 5-6 PM the heavier snow showers will continue moving off to the east and east-northeast. They will still be capable of producing periods of heavy snow, even up to 1” an hour at times.

6pm

While I do think places that see the heavier periods of snow will see some snow stick to roadways, in many places temperatures will remain just above freezing this afternoon. So snow will likely melt upon contact with the pavement.

Through the evening temperatures will fall below freezing from west to east across Indiana. By 4-5 PM it looks like the freezing line will be in western Indiana. Around 5:30-6:30 PM temperatures in the Indianapolis metro look to fall right at 32. It looks like by 8-9 PM we will start to fall below the freezing mark. When the temperatures do fall below freezing roads will start to become icy and slick.

tempfreezwe
6 PM Temperatures

Through the overnight snow showers will continue across the forecast area. While it won’t be a constant snow, scattered snow showers will impact the region.

The latest HRRR and RAP models are really honing in on the south-central Indiana area for the heaviest snowfall this afternoon/evening with 2-3” of snow falling in areas. The RAP even suggest a couple localized areas getting near 4”.

HRRR
HRRR

 

RAP
RAP

Overnight scattered snow showers will continue. At this time it looks like a better focal point for snow will be across southern Indiana.

By Tuesday morning the RPM does show another round of snow showers moving into central Indiana. So those could impact the morning rush hour as well.

TUE 8 AM
TUE 8 AM

Late this evening through Tuesday winds will be on the increase. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH will be possible by 6-7 PM this evening through Tuesday evening. So blowing and drifting snow will be possible.

wind

We will continue to keep you update with the latest over the next 24-36 hours!