Zone 6 & 7 Forecast: Nice Weekend, Then Winter Returns. JT

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Video analysis:

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: Clouds continue to build in across the forecast area this afternoon. This will continue through tonight into the overnight hours as a front and upper level trough progress across the zones.

CURRETN

Overnight there will be a bit of a disturbance moving through the region. This may allow for some isolated light showers to move through western zone 7 and northern zone 6 after midnight. It does appear these will be in liquid form, but temperatures at the surface will be below freezing. So some very light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across those areas. With that being said, I want to emphasize it looks like this will be very isolated in nature and very light. The latest short-range models have no ice accumulations overnight.

SAT2AM

Lows tonight will be in the mid 20’s to around 30°.

WEEKEND: The weekend looks to be a very nice weekend overall. Saturday there will be a weak surface boundary in place across the area. However, with very little moisture to work with I am not anticipating much, if anything, in the way of precipitation. The overall forecast will call for a sun and clouds mix with perhaps an extremely isolated shower.

SAT10PM

Saturday will be a warmer day with highs in the low 40’s to mid 50’s.

Sunday we will be watching an area of low pressure approach the region from the north. Most of the day will remain dry across Illinois with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. It does appear between 5-7 PM rain will develop along a cold front that will sweep through the area Sunday evening/night.

SUN7PM

Sunday looks to be another warm day with highs in the lower 40’s to lower 50’s before the cold front moves through later in the evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY: While rain showers will be possible through Sunday night the cold front will move through the area and temperatures will fall below freezing. When they do, rain will change over to snow Sunday night. It looks like this change over will occur between 12-2 AM Monday.

While models do show a lull in activity through about 7 AM Monday morning I won’t be shocked to see them become a little more aggressive with snow than what they are currently anticipating.

MON7AM

Through the day Monday snow will continue to spread to the southeast as the area of low pressure moves to the southeast as well.

Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 20’s to mid/upper 30’s. So most locations will see all snow with perhaps a changeover to some rain across very southern zone 6.

Monday night through Tuesday afternoon pieces of energy will continue to spin around the upper level low. These pieces of energy will bring snow to the region. While it won’t be a constant snow, the upper level disturbances could bring brief periods of heavier snow.

SNOW GIF

Across zones 6/7 a generally .5-1.5” looks to be a good bet right now. The latest GFS and GEM models both support that. However, any small shift south or west in the track of the low would shift the heavier snow farther south and west as well. So it’s something we will continue to watch and update you on as needed.

 

GEM
GEM
GFS
GFS

LONG –RANGE: Next week we will continue on a northwesterly flow. This allow multiple impulses to move through the region. You can see via the 500 mb vorticity maps a disturbance moving through late Wednesday into early Thursday. This could bring us another threat of a quick hitting clipper system.

gem_z500_vort_us_22

By late in the week and next weekend we are targeting a bigger system that could impact the forecast area with a pretty good snowfall. Models are a little different on the timing of things, but we will keep a close eye on the 13th -17th timeframe this month as models and the pattern both support it.

sat14
GEM SAT 13th/SUN 14th

 

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH A VERY ISOLATED PM RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S. ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS 9-18 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW. ACCUMULATION LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20’S.

TUESDAY: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, A SNOW SHOWER EAST? HIGHS IN THE LOW 20’S TO MID 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20’S.

THURSDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS, SNOW LATE? HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASING, SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.