Zone 1 & 5 Forecast Discussion: Nice Weekend, But Wintry Next Week. JT.

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Video forecast analysis: 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: Overall it hasn’t been a bad day across zones 1 and 5. We started off with lots of sunshine, but some clouds have built into the forecast area through the afternoon. However, that’s about it.

nw

Overnight we will continue to see some clouds build into the region so we will call for partly cloudy skies. However, overall it looks to be a quiet, cold night across zones 1/5.

Tonight lows will drop into the 20’s across the forecast area.

WEEKEND: We will start the weekend on Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun. However, there will be a very weak surface disturbance in place. While there will be very little moisture I’m not totally going to rule out an evening rain shower. Overall though, most places will be dry Saturday.

sat10pm

Highs Saturday will be in the low 40’s to mid 50’s.

sun

Sunday we will watch an upper level trough and a surface low pressure system move towards the region from the northwest. This will bring a cold front across Indiana late in the day/evening on Sunday. It does appear by 7 PM rain will have developed along the front and will be progressing east and southeast across the state.

SUN7PM

As the cold front moves through the state temperatures Sunday night will fall below freezing. This looks to occur around midnight or shortly after. It’s at this point rain would start to change over to snow across zones 1/5.

MONDAY – TUESDAY: The models do show a brief lull in snowfall from about 3-4 AM until late morning Monday. However, I won’t be totally shocked to see them become a bit more aggressive with snow during that time in future runs because the upper levels are still impressive with energy through the morning hours.

Better chances for snow look to move into the forecast area late Monday morning into the afternoon.

MON 1 PM
MON 1 PM

Snow chances will continue across the forecast area through Tuesday afternoon/evening as pieces of energy rotate around the upper level area of low pressure. With that in mind, I do not think it will be a consistent snow for 36-48 hours, but there will be periods of snow as the upper level pieces of energy move through. Some of those will cause times of heavier snow as well. It is definitely a forecast that will have to be fine-tuned and timed out closer to the event.

SNOW GIF

The latest GEM and GFS models both show an accumulating snow for the area late Sunday through late Tuesday night. Right now 1-3.5” looks to be a good idea for what to expect. However, I won’t be shocked to see some higher amounts in there as well.

GFS
GFS

 

GEM
GEM

Also keep in mind, when you have system like this one winds can become a problem creating blowing a drifting snow. The latest forecast data would suggest wind gusts of 15-25 MPH Monday, but possibly some gusts of 25-40 MPH on Tuesday.

gusts

These clipper type systems can be complicated to forecast so it’s something we will continue to monitor and bring you the latest as we get closer to the event.

LONG-RANGE: We will continue on a northwesterly flow at upper levels next week. This will likely prove to provide us with some active winter weather. The latest GEM model shows another disturbance moving into the region late Wednesday into Thursday that could bring snowfall as well.

gem_z500_vort_us_22
WED PM/THU AM

By late in the week and next weekend we are targeting a bigger system that could impact the forecast area with a pretty good snowfall. Models are a little different on the timing of things, but we will keep a close eye on the 13th – 17th timeframe this month.

sat14

7 DAY FORECAST

SATURDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH A VERY ISOLATED PM RAIN SHOWER/SPRINKLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO LOW 50’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO UPPER 30’S. ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. NORTHWEST WINDS 9-18 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW. ACCUMULATION LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20’S.

TUESDAY: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY, A SNOW SHOWER EAST? HIGHS IN THE LOW 20’S TO MID 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20’S.

THURSDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS, SNOW LATE? HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASING, SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20’S.

FRIDAY: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO LOW 40’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.