Zone 6 & 7 Warm weekend. Turns much colder w/accum snow next week. #INWX #ILWX

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Video analysis: M. 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: An area of high pressure has ridged into the region today. While there were some clouds to start the morning we have since cleared and have sunny skies across the zones.

visible

This afternoon and evening sunshine/clear skies will continue as high pressure remains in control over the region. However, overnight a backdoor cold front will move across the western and northern portions of Illinois. It does, temperatures at the surface will cool, temperatures aloft will remain slightly warmer. When this happens we get an inversion and it traps moisture at low-level. So overnight fog will be possible, especially the farther north you go. As you can see per the latest RPM model, it will also limit visibility overnight into early Friday morning.

Visibility
Visibility

Temperatures overnight will fall below freezing across the region. So any fog that does form will freeze and will make for some slick surfaces.

tonight temp

FRIDAY – AM SATURDAY: Early in the morning we will be dealing with that freezing fog in locations, especially farther north across zone 7.

While there may be enough time for fog to burn off and some peeks of sunshine to get through, sunshine looks to be pretty limited as clouds look to build back in through the day Friday. However, with the clouds in place Friday looks to be a dry day.

FRI CLOUDS
FRI CLOUDS

Highs Friday will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Another small disturbance will be moving across zones 6/7 Friday night into Saturday. While there won’t be a tremendous amount of moisture, there will be enough to support some precipitation overnight. It looks like by 2-3 AM across portions of zone 7 some isolated areas of light freezing rain will move in, possibly mixing with some snow farther east.

sat3am

While those isolated chances of precipitation will continue across both zones through mid to late Saturday, it does appear temperatures will go above freezing across the zones by 9-10 AM. So any freezing rain or light snow will change over to rain during that time.

SAT 10 AM TEMPS
SAT 10 AM TEMPS

Right now it does appear some light ice accumulations will be possible across both zones, current thinking is it will be focused across western and northern zone 7. The latest NAM model does have some locations seeing around .03-.06” of ice. With the areas of freezing rain being so isolated make sure to check back with us as things could change and details will need fine tuning.

fr

WEEKEND: Saturday another weak disturbance will be moving through. Not really anticipating any serious issues with this. Right now I would anticipate a pretty nice day overall with sun and some clouds with perhaps an isolated rain shower in the afternoon. However, most places will be dry.

sat4pm

Highs on Saturday will be warmer too with temperatures topping out in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.

Sunday we may start out with some sunshine but clouds look to quickly work in through the day as an area of low pressure starts to move in from the northwest.

By late afternoon isolated to scattered rain chances will be in place across zones 6 and 7 as the low moves closer.

sun7pm

Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s. So overall it won’t be a terrible day.

Sunday night the low will start to approach the zones. As it does temperatures will drop through the evening and overnight. As a result a changeover from rain to snow is anticipated later in the evening/early overnight.

mon1am

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Early Monday models show a brief lull in snow, another area looks to move in later in the afternoon and evening Monday as the low slides south. It at this point snow could start to accumulate across the zones.

mon4pm

Overnight Monday through late Tuesday periods of snow will remain as the upper level trough is slow to exit the region. During this time more accumulation will be possible.

500mbrelvortconus

The latest GFS model shows 1-3” across the forecast area while the GEM remains less aggressive. Right now I would tend to side more with the GFS as these systems often come south and are a bit more aggressive than models depict. Regardless, make sure to check back with us, we will have updates as needed.

GFS
GFS

 

GEM
GEM

7 DAY FORECAST

FRIDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS, POSS. CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN/SNOW LATE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S NORTHWEST TO MID 40’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECAILLY WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO LOW 50’S SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-16 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO MID 30’S.

SUNDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8-16 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20’S NORTH TO MID 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S. ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS 9-18 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20’S. ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY: SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW CHANCES ENDING. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO MID 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 20’S TO AROUND 30 SOUTH.

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40’S.

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS INCREASING, SNOW LATE? LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO AROUND 30.