Zone 6 & 7 Weds Forecast Discusssion. Snow/cold looms. JT.

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Video analysis. M.

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: While places did start off clear this morning clouds have built back into the forecast zones this morning and will continue through the evening hours.

1215il

We will be watching an upper level disturbance move across zones 6/7 this afternoon and evening. While moisture is not overly impressive, there will be enough still remaining to allow some light precipitation to fall this evening. While precipitation will start off as snow across western/central Illinois, temperatures will support rain across eastern Illinois initially. However, a changeover will occur as the cold air moves in and we lose daytime heating.

5pm

Most of those will move east of the region by 7-8 PM this evening.

8pm

While a few isolated places could see a coating or dusting of snow this evening, accumulations will be very minimal at best.

snowfall

While winds have remained blustery today, these winds will start to ease overnight.

Overnight an area of high pressure will ridge in from the southwest. This will start to dry the air out, so at least some clearing is anticipated across southern and western Illinois overnight.

Lows tonight will fall into the upper teens north to upper 20’s south.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: A strong 1034mb area of high pressure will build into the region Thursday and Friday. This will help dry the environment out and pave the way to a quiet end to the workweek.

highpressu

Thursday the high will ridge in from the south. As it does clouds should start to decrease early in the day, thus giving way to some afternoon sunshine.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30’s north to around 40 south.

Thursday night clear to mostly clear conditions will remain in place across the forecast zones. Lows will fall into the 20’s.

Friday the area of high pressure will be in place to the regions south. However, we will see a bit of a backdoor cold front move through the region. While I don’t think there will be enough lift or moisture to produce much (if any) precipitation, it will cause for an increase in cloud coverage by early in the day. This clouds looks to hold on through the day on Friday.

frifront

Highs in Friday will be in the upper 30’s north to upper 40’s south.

WEEKEND: The area of high pressure will move off to the northeast late Friday night into Saturday. A disturbance will move across Illinois on Saturday. As it does it looks to be enough to allow some isolated to widely scattered rain showers to form by mid to late morning through the evening hours. However, I think many places will remain dry.

sat

Highs on Saturday will be warmer with temperatures in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.

Sunday we will be watching a clipper system of sorts move in from the northwest. This will be associated with an impressive upper level trough that will dig into the eastern portions of the CONUS. For the daytime hours on Sunday we will call for dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds.

Highs Sunday will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s once again.

SUNDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY: The large upper level trough and surface low will move southward into the region Sunday night. With it will come colder air and precipitation chances, mainly in the way as snow.

GEM MONDAY
GEM MONDAY

The surface low will be key to exactly how much snowfall we see across the region. While the GFS keeps the low farther north, keep in mind these system do have a tendency to move south as we get closer to the actual event!

With the upper level low still in place through Tuesday snow chances look to remain across the region until late in the day on Tuesday before moving off to the east.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_7
500 MB

 

7 DAY FORECAST:

THURSDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-16 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8-16 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEARING WEST TO EAST, SNOW CHANCES ENDING. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO MID 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.