Zone 1 & 5 Weds Forecast Discussion. Snow/cold looms. JT.

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Video forecast analysis. M.

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: Sunshine started the day across zones 1/5. However, an upper level disturbance is moving across the region and clouds are on the increase from west to east.

vis

This evening clouds will move across the forecast zones and some slight chances of precipitation will go up. By 4-5 PM some isolated rain showers will be possible, especially across western Indiana.

5pm

With temperatures above freezing showers will start out as rain. However, as the sun sets and temperatures fall any rain showers will transition over to snow. This transition likely occurring around 7-8 PM.

7pm

Snow showers will remain possible through 11 PM – 12 AM tonight. Perhaps a few lingering flurries will continue overnight.

thu12am

While a few areas could see a very light coating or dusting of snow this evening no serious accumulations are anticipated.

snowfall

Lows tonight will fall into the mid 20’s north to around 30 south.

Through the evening into the overnight the gusty winds that have continued through the daytime hours Wednesday will start to slack off as well.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will start to ridge in from the southwest on Thursday. While models do show clouds sticking around zones 1/6 through late morning and early afternoon, clearing does look to take place by mid-afternoon from west to east across the state.

highpressu

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 30’s north to low 40’s south.

Friday a bit of a back door cold front will move through the region. While the atmosphere will be to dry for much, if any rain showers, it does looks like cloudy skies will move back in across Indiana on Friday.

frifront

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 30’s to upper 40’s.

WEEKEND: The area of high pressure will move off to the northeast on Saturday. An upper level disturbance will move across the state. As it does a few rain showers will be possible, but overall it does look like a mostly dry day.

namconus_ref_ncus_28

Highs on Saturday will be warmer with temperatures in the low 40’s to around 50.

Sunday an area of low pressure will start to move in from the northwest. This will be a system worth watching very late Sunday into early next week. Overall Sunday looks to be a warm day with a mix of clouds and sun.

Highs will be in the mid 40’s to mid 50’s.

SUNDAY NIGHT – TUESDAY: The large upper level trough and surface low will move southward into the region Sunday night. With it will come colder air and precipitation chances, mainly in the way as snow.

The surface low will be key to exactly how much snowfall we see across the region. While the GFS keeps the low farther north the CMC models bring it south through the region. Keep in mind these system do have a tendency to move south as we get closer to the actual event!

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_22
CMC

With the upper level low still in place through Tuesday snow chances look to remain across the region until late in the day on Tuesday before moving off to the east.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_7

7 DAY FORECAST:

THURSDAY: DECREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS NEAR 30 NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

FRIDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 40’S SOUTH. WEST WINDS AT 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECAILLY WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 20’S NORTH TO LOW 30’S SOUTH.

SATURDAY: MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40’S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-16 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO LOW 30’S.

SUNDAY: MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID 40’S TO MID 50’S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8-16 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30’S NORTH TO UPPER 30’S SOUTH.

MONDAY: CLOUDY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30’S TO LOW 40’S.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 20’S.

TUESDAY: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEARING WEST TO EAST, SNOW CHANCES ENDING. LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO MID 20’S.

WEDNESDAY: CLEARING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20’S TO UPPER 30’S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20’S TO MID 30’S.