Zone options 1&5. Update On Severe Weather & Forecast Discussion. JT.

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Long range video discussion: 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: A cold front will approach the region from the west through the evening into tonight. Ahead of the front isolated to scattered areas of rain and storms will remain possible.

now

With a strong upper level jet at 100-110 mph in place coupled with a low-level jet max of 60-70 mph winds energy aloft will be impressive tonight. As storms move through they will tap into these upper level winds and some of those could be brought to the surface bringing in the threat for damaging winds.

500 mb winds
500 mb winds

 

850mb winds
850mb winds

The main area of storms looks to impact the Indianapolis metro around 8-9 PM this evening. With damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes being the primary threat.

9pm

This line will move east through the night and into western Ohio around 12-1 am am tonight. While I do think the severe weather will have diminished a lot by then, some isolated severe wind gusts will remain possible.

WED1AM

The best chances for severe weather looks to be from I-70 south across Indiana this evening.

SVR Threat

Regarding new rainfall totals of .30-.60” of new rainfall there will be some areas of higher totals. Some of the latest Hi-RES models place as much as 1.5-2” of rain in areas south of I-70. With that being the focal point for the heaviest storm activity I wouldn’t be shocked to see that occur.

rain

By 4-5 AM the rain and storms will exit out of Ohio. However, with some left over moisture in place I won’t be shocked to see some showers or drizzle in areas overnight across zones 1 and 5. There may even be some patchy fog across eastern Indiana and into Ohio.

WED5AM

Lows overnight will be in the mid 30’s west to upper 40’s east.

WEDNESDAY: An upper level disturbance will move across the zones Wednesday afternoon. As it does some isolated areas of precipitation will move across the forecast zones from east to west. Initially air temperatures look warm enough to support rain. However, as we get into the evening hours both air and dew point temperatures will fall. This would support a change over to a rain/snow mix then to all snow.

WED4PM

While I am not anticipating much in the way of snow accumulations a coating to perhaps .30″ will be possible in isolated areas. The GFS does show the potential for those very light accumulations. However, I don’t think they will be as widespread as the models depict.

gfssnow

For the most part any snow showers look to come to an end across the region by 12-1 AM Thursday.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Wednesday night an area of high pressure will start to ridge in from the west. This will allow for some clearing across western portions of Indiana later into the overnight.

Lows will be around 20 north to around 30 south.

THURSDAY – FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will be in control to end the week. This will clear out skies for Thursday and most of the day on Friday. However, clouds do look to be on the increase from west to east Friday afternoon.

highfri

Highs to end the week will be in the low 30’s north to mid 40’s south.