Tracking severe weather & Winters fierce return! #ILWX #INWX #WMIWX #OHWX

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Video forecast analysis: 

Forecast Discussion:

EVENING-TONIGHT: A few snow showers are left over across eastern Indiana and Ohio today, but for the most part we are dry across the forecast region. High pressure is building into the region this will give us sunshine this afternoon and evening, but will also keep us cool.

current

Overnight the area of high pressure will be off to the regions east as a warm front start to lift from south to north across the region overnight. While no precipitation is anticipated overnight I do think clouds will be on the increase as the warm front gets closer.

Lows overnight will be around 30 north and east to the upper 30’s to the southwest.

WEEKEND: The warm front will lift northward on Saturday. This will allow for southerly winds to spread warm air into the forecast region. I also think as the front moves north the clouds will clear out south of the front and sunshine can be anticipated.

Highs on Saturday look to be in the mid 40’s across the northern portions of the region to near 60 close to the Ohio River.

sat

Sunday a cold front will sweep from west to east across the forecast region. Scattered areas of rain and even a few thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this front. So rain chances will remain in the forecast through the day Sunday.

sun4pm

Highs Sunday will be warm once again, highs will be around 50 north to low 60’s south!

MONDAY: Rain will end late Sunday into early Monday. Monday will be mostly dry and cooler day as we limbo between two weather systems. We will be watching a strong area of low pressure develop across the southern Great Plains.

On Tuesday a warm front will lift back north across the region and this will allow for very warm air to surge into the region. Highs on Tuesday will likely be in the mid 50’s to mid 60’s across a large chunk of the forecast zones.

Tuesday afternoon and evening the low will move through the forecast area bringing a very strong cold front with it. As the front sweeps from west to east across the region on Tuesday, rain and thunderstorms will develop along an ahead of the front and impact the region.

tues

At lower levels dew points will rise into the mid/upper 50’s and possibly near 60 south. Upper level winds at 500 mb will be screaming across the region at 140-150 mph.

500 mb winds
500 mb winds

At 850 winds will be streaming in at 80-90 MPH. With winds so high, large amounts of wind shear will be present in the environment.

850 mb winds
850 mb winds

 We couple moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear all together and we have the recipe for a severe weather event across the region next Tuesday.

Surface Dew Point
Surface Dew Point

The latest SPC outlooks places southern Indiana and Illinois in a 15% risk of severe weather. However, based off of the forecast model guidance I would anticipated that to be moved northward to at least the I-70 corridor as we get closer to the event.

TUE. SPC Severe Outlook
TUE. SPC Severe Outlook