Evening/Overnight Snowfall Forecast Update. JT. #ILWX #INWX #OHWX

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Forecast Discussion:

 An upper level piece of energy is moving across Wisconsin and Michigan to the south and southeast. Areas of snow have developed around this piece of energy and is moving to the east and southeast.

radar

While this will bring precipitation south and southeast across the forecast region today the snow looks to change over to rain as it gets into north central Indiana this afternoon. The reason for that is temperatures have quickly responded to a warm front that is progressing through the region. Many of the models are 3-8 degrees too cold at this hour.

Currently
At 11 AM
NAM at 11 AM
NAM at 11 AM

 

So these snow showers will move southward this afternoon, likely continuing as all snow across very northern Illinois, Michigan, and very northern Indiana.

However, as the snow works southward this afternoon it will run into the warmer air at the surface. This will change the snow over to some rain across northern/north central Indiana and western Ohio around 4-5 PM.

5pm
5 PM

As the scattered areas of precipitation head south and southeast this evening precipitation will likely start as rain. However, as the sun begins to set and colder air settles in a transition back over to snow showers will occur. That changeover looks to occur in the metro around 7-8 PM this evening.

7pm
7 PM

The snow showers will move out of the region by 12-1 AM tonight. However, a few light snow showers or flurries look to remain possible overnight.

12am
Midnight

While some light accumulations of snow look possible all the way down to the I-70 corridor I think the rain will cut down on a lot of those totals. The latest HRRR/RPM/RAP models show only a coating to .20” across most of the area. The high side of the accumulations looks to be across very northern Indiana and southern Michigan where .40-.80” with some 1” amounts remain possible.

RPM
RPM

 

RAP
RAP

 

HRRR
HRRR

Also worth a mention, temperatures will be below freezing overnight. So any wet surfaces caused by rain or snow will have the potential to become icy.