#ILWX #INWX #OHWX Wed. Southern Zones Forecast Discussion. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: A temperature inversion has allowed clouds and even some snow flurries to stick around, especially across Indiana and Ohio. Current satellite shows clouds eroding away from west to east across the forecast region.

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Through the afternoon and evening, clouds will continue to erode. However, this is occurring relatively slowly, so east portions of Indiana and western Ohio may remain overcast through the day.

A weak upper level disturbance will move to the southeast across the forecast region tonight. While models have really backed off of snowfall chances through the overnight, I still think a few isolated snow showers and flurries should be expected after midnight. The better chance for some snow showers will be across the northern half of zone 1.

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Regarding accumulations I think many locations will see no snow overnight. However, some localized areas of a coating to .20” can’t be ruled out. Better chances of a couple of tenths of an inch look to exist across the northeastern portions of Indiana.

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THURSDAY: With a bit of a disturbance rolling through aloft through the morning hours I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few areas of very light freezing rain/freezing drizzle from about 6-11 AM Thursday morning. With that being said, it should be light and accumulations would be minimal at best.

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 There does look to be a bit of a break in precipitation chances late morning through at least mid-afternoon Thursday. However, another upper level impulse will move to the southeast across eastern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. As it moves south areas of snow will move along with it. By 4-5 PM Thursday snow will be moving into northern portions of zone 1.

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THU4PM

This will continue to the south and southeast through the evening. Current timing would support some snow showers in the Indianapolis metro around 5-6 PM.

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While I don’t think this will be a continuous snow, snow showers will continue across central Indiana until 11 PM – 12 AM before moving off to the south and southeast.

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Overnight a few isolated areas of lake effect snow may fall across northern portions of zone 1. However, these will be light in nature with very little to no accumulation anticipated.

Regarding accumulations through early Friday morning it appears there will be a widespread coating to .50” across the forecast region with even some 1” reports. The 1” reports will be more likely from I-70 northward. I want to emphasize, snow will be hit and miss, so some places in the area may see little to no snow, while others see half an inch or more.

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FRIDAY: An area of high pressure will ridge into the forecast region on Friday. This will keep our weather calm to end the week.

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 30’s north to around 50 south.

WEEKEND: A warm front will be lifting through the region late Friday through Saturday. Along and north of this front partly to most cloudy skies will be in place with highs in the low to upper 40’s.

However, as the front lifts through it appears skies will clear out and with southerly flow in place temperatures will warm dramatically. Highs south of the warm front will be in the 50’s to even near 60!

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Sunday the frontal boundary looks to slow down and kind of stall across the forecast region. With this in place I won’t rule out a few showers across the forecast zones, even though it will likely only be a 10-20% chance.

Highs on Sunday will once again be dependent on the location of the front. For now we will call for upper 40’s north to around 60 south.

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NEXT WEEK: Models are still trying to resolve the forecast for early to mid-next week. Current thinking is a strong area of low pressure will develop Monday across the leeward side of the Rockies into the southern Great Plains region.

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MON 7 PM

Monday night into Tuesday the low will continue to deepen and track to the east and northeast closer to the Midwest. As it does the lingering frontal boundary that will be in place across the region would lift back north as a warm front on Tuesday.

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TUE 7 PM

Late Tuesday afternoon into the evening the low will track across portions of the region bringing a strong cold front with it. This front will be the focal point for rain and t’storm activity through the afternoon and nighttime hours.

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TUE 7 PM

It does appear that upper level and lower levels will support organized thunderstorms with at least a chance of some being strong. As we mentioned yesterday the resemblance between this and the 12/23/15 severe event is very close and it also fits the recurring pattern.

 The Storm Prediction Center has already mentioned severe weather across the Deep South in their Day 7 outlook, I would not be surprised to see that risk shifted into the forecast region as the date draws nearer.

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The front will sweep through Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. Behind this temperatures do look to fall rapidly, so any wet surfaces or roadways could be subject to flash freezing. Any moisture left in the atmosphere would likely change over to snow showers through the overnight.

Again, this system is nearly a week out and many details will have to be ironed out before then, but it’s something we will closely watch.