#ILWX #INWX #OHWX Tuesday Weather Forecast Discussion. JT.

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – OVERNIGHT: Clouds remain in place this afternoon as moisture remains in place at the low-levels. While high pressure continues to move in from the southwest the clouds will remain.

now

Through the afternoon and evening a few isolated snow showers or flurries could develop. However, I really think these will be very limited in coverage.

evening

Overnight the area of high pressure to the regions southwest will start to ridge in. However, with moisture lingering clouds will continue across most, if not all, of the region overnight.

Lows will be in the 20’s across the forecast zones.

WEDNESDAY – THURSDAY: An area of high pressure will build in over the region on Wednesday. This will allow for drier air to spread into the lower levels of the environment. With that being said more sunshine looks likely on Wednesday across the forecast zones.

Highs will be in around 30 north to around 40 south.

Wednesday night clouds will start to move back in ahead of clipper system that will approach from the northwest. Snow will start impact northern portions of zone 1 across Indiana around 4-5 AM Thursday morning and spreading southeast.

THU5AM

THU7AM

Thursday the chance for snow showers looks to remain through mid-day, mainly across zone 1. This before snow moves off to the east through the afternoon.

Currently models are back and forth on the snowfall potential. Some keep the snow mostly north of the zones giving most places no snow. However, the RGEM/GEM/GFS/ WRF-NMM do bring snow showers to the region with .10 – .45” of new snowfall. So this is definitely a forecast we will have to fine-tune over the next 24 hours or so.

thuam

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Through the night some snow showers look to remain possible until after midnight across eastern Indiana and Ohio before coming to an end.

fri1am

The latest GEM model shows areas of .75-1″ of new snowfall in localized areas through early Friday morning.

friam

FRIDAY:  A warm front will start to move through the region from the south and southwest. This will allow for a return to a southerly flow of air and also a return to warmer temperatures!

Highs on Friday will be around 40 to the northeast but possibly in the lower 50’s in very southern zones!

Friday night there will be a bit of a disturbance across northern Indiana and Illinois that will move through. With a boundary already in place at the surface with the northward propagating warm front, I will leave at least the chance for some isolated rain showers in the forecast across northern portions of zone 1/7 Friday night into Saturday.

Lows Friday night will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

WEEKEND: Saturday the warm front will lift through the region allowing for a strong southerly flow of air to continue across the forecast region. This is anticipated to allow unseasonably warm air to move in the forecast area. Along with this will come increased moisture and partly/mostly cloudy skies.

Highs on Saturday will be very warm with temperatures in the  low 50’s north to possibly around 60 south!

sat

Saturday night a weak upper level disturbance will move across the forecast region. With this in mind I won’t rule out a few overnight showers.

Lows overnight look to remain mild only falling into the upper 30’s to around 50.

Sunday a frontal boundary looks to be in place across the forecast region. This will be key in determining temperatures and precipitation through the day on Sunday. For right now we will remain with isolated to widely scattered chances of rain for Sunday.

sun

Highs on Sunday look to be in around 50 north to around 60 south. However, with any north or south shift in the front temperatures would respond accordingly.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK: The frontal boundary will be in place across the region one again on Monday, so the overall forecast for Monday looks to end up much like Sunday with rain chances/temperature relying heavily on the placement of the frontal boundary.

However, the main focus will turn to the area of low pressure that will be developing across the southern Great Plains.

Through the night on Monday into Tuesday the area of low pressure will move northeast. As it does a strong warm front will lift north with it. This could bring a better chance of some rain with it overnight Monday into Tuesday.

On Tuesday a strong area of low pressure will move to the regions northwest and north bringing a strong cold front with it. It currently looks like there will be enough dynamics at the surface and aloft to support not only rain, but possibly some t’storms. While there are many variables still in question, this would be reminiscent of the Dec. 23, 2015 system when there was severe weather across the region.

tue-wed

While I’m not saying that there will be severe weather, I am most certainly not saying there will not be. It’s something we will have to iron out over the next week or so.

Behind the front very cold air will work in quickly. This will allow any leftover moisture to change over to snow and could also cause issues with flash freezing on wet surfaces.

temp