#ILWX #INWX #OHWX Wednesday Weather Forecast Discussion. JT.

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Forecast Discussion: 

EVENING – TONIGHT: Snow continues to move off to the regions east this afternoonwith only a few light snow showers and flurries continuing.

CURRENT

Tonight high pressure will build into the region behind the snow maker. While the air will really begin to dry out this afternoon into the night, the models do have some lingering low-level moisture hanging around. While models do not suggest any precipitation, light snow showers or flurries may occur in some locations.

925mbrhrv
Low Level Humidity

Lows overnight will be in the mid-teens north to mid 20’s south.

THURSDAY: The area of high pressure will start to move off to the forecast areas east through the day. This will keep the region dry through the daytime hours Thursday as a major storm system develops to the southwest.

thu

Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20’s north to mid 30’s south.

Thursday night a large high will build in from the north. This looks to suppress the storm system to the regions south Thursday and Friday. So while I won’t totally rule out some snow in extreme southern zone 5/6 right along the Ohio River, most places look to remain dry.

FRI8AM

Lows overnight Thursday will be in the upper teens north to upper 20’s south.

FRIDAY: The large area of high pressure to the regions north and northwest really looks to suppress the big storm system on Friday. Current thinking is this will stay mostly south of the region with only places right on the Ohio River seeing any kind of accumulation.

FRI4PM

You can see the latest NAM models putting down some serious snowfall just south of the forecast area. While models are in a good agreement with the track being far south of the region, it will still bear watching for changes for the simple reason any changes could have major impacts on the forecast.

NAM 12 km
NAM 12 km

NAM 4 km
NAM 4 km

It’s for this reason Winter Storm Watches have been issued through late Friday night for a few counties in very southern Indiana.

Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Watch

Highs on Friday will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.

Winds also look to be relatively strong at times on Friday with wind gusts of 25-30 mph possible.

Friday night an upper level disturbance will move across the region. As this area of vorticity moves through some light snow showers or flurries can’t be ruled out.

frinight

Lows will be in the mid-teens north to mid 20’s south.

WEEKEND: Over the weekend an area of high pressure will ridge northward into the region. This looks to keep conditions calm and quiet Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday looks be a cold day with highs in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s. However, with the high pressure ridging in some sunshine looks to get through. So for now we will call for a mix of sunshine and clouds.

SAT

Sunday the high pressure will start to move off to the region east and we will watch a developing area of low pressure start to move our way. While Sunday looks to be a dry day, it does look to be considerably cloudier than Saturday.

Sundays highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Sunday night we will watch the area of low pressure move closer to the region. As it does it will bring some chances of snow and/or rain to western Illinois very late in the night into early Monday morning.

MONDAY: The area of low pressure will start to move into and through the region Monday. Right now we are still a little far out from the event, but areas of accumulating snow look possible across portions of the forecast region.

MON

The exact track of the low will be crucial, as places to the south of the low could see rain instead of snow. It’s a forecast we will watch and fine-tune as we get closer.