Short and long range video analysis:
In the short term for SW MI there is a winter weather advisory in effect for dangerous wind chills and another 1-3″ of snow tonight from the lake effect snows. This is subside over the next day.
Good afternoon folks, Interesting stat for you only ~5% of the great lakes are iced over right now..meaning lake effect snow still very much in the game for the rest of the month of Jan. Overall the Wintry threats around going to be in the southern half of the northern zones over the next 5 days so there will no be much to discuss in this update but the more important part of this forecast will be just watching how far north these systems come Wednesday and Friday.
WEDNESDAY: The morning data has come in shifting Wednesday snows noticeably further south. This issue I have here is the upper level dynamics of this system are further north than the surface features and when we think back to the Jan 10th system this is exactly what happened. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the models trend back north with this system somewhat over the next 36hrs but theres really no way to be sure just yet sadly. Here is what I mean..note the energy further north than the precip on the Euro.
Below is where the NAM is place snow tomorrow night into Wednesday. We will have our official forecast map out tonight or tomorrow morning pending how the data evolves.
THURSDAY: Models are trying to suggest the lowest levels of the atmosphere remain saturated for perhaps some pesky lite snow of freezing drizzle Thursday morning. This is something Ill fine tune in the days to come. Areas in
FRIDAY: As of right now this storm system looks to stay south of I70. Keeping it out of the forecast area. I will say there are 3 ensemble members of the GFS that want to take this storm system over the I70 corridor but I think that could be going to far north. Right now I think its south of 70 overall Friday so it really has little to no impact at this time. This is the storm track I spoke of in the Winter outlook and why I thought I70 south would have an above normal snow outcome this Winter.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: Next system that will pose a snow threat to the area comes Sunday night into Monday. Right now the ECMWF is picking up on a nice upper level vort max to track through the area..it looks a lot like Nov 21st 2015. However we know how the models have been useless this year so right now all we can do is put it in the back of our minds and keep eyes on it.