Good morning 5:20AM as I type this quick update on what to expect the rest of the morning as the clipper system and cold front continues to move through the area. Current check at radar shows our last round developing nicely with associated cold front and upper level energy I would imagine it would actually grow a bit as it tracks ESE towards the area.
The upper level energy or vorticity maximum I speak of at times is behind this round as this is the main or final piece if you will before snow shuts off. Often times these vort maxes are what offer up the “over performance” we had anticipated. Unfortunately its hard to determine whether or not that actually happens but I do like what I see currently for snow squalls or embedded heavier bursts of snow from now until 10am.
The associated cold front will also be passing with this round of snow bringing additional lift/gusty winds/and rapidly falling temps so this should also “fluff” up the snow that falls from 6-10am.
The latest HRRR still indicates an additional 0.50″ to 2.0″ of snow depending on location and where the bands can setup. Again I wish I could be more precise with that but its just not possible. You can see where the model tries to depict its idea of the additional “heaviest” snow.
As all of this exits latest data is still trying to suggest we will actually see the sunshine to around and after lunch time so that will aid in the melting process before sunsets and refreeze occurs with overnight lows getting into single digits or even below 0 in spots.
If you have questions please feel free to reach out as Ill be watching to see how radar evolves next several hours. Again heavier bursts of snow will develop just need to see where that occurs. As I finish typing this update I can see snow expanding in coverage over NW IND which is an encouraging sign. It will start to track FROM the WNW to the ESE. M.