6 MIN VIDEO UPDATE FOLLOWED BY WRITE UP BELOW:
Good afternoon, My biggest fear has come to life here folks and that is some monumental shifts in the forecasted snow tonight. Sadly this is nothing we could have ever seen coming much before this time but what has happened is the energy has essentially been split into 2 separate waves..one goes NW and one goes SE. Its good for some and bad for others. Its obvious with nowcast trends so the confidence in the short term at-least is rising.
With that being said the timing has not deviated much from previous forecasts and the flash freezing will still be an issue tonight. Hopefully this will allow you enough to make the necessary staffing and treatment changes so you don’t waste any money in areas where snow is not expected anymore tonight. Again do not underestimate the potential of black ice even where snow doesn’t fall.
Updated 24hr snowcast:
THIS IS THE LATEST HRRR *ENDING* AT 4AM SO ITS PROJECTING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THIS POTENTIALLY. THE PLOT IS CERTAINLY THICKENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IND SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPDATES. CHANGES LIKE THIS ARE SOME OF THE RAREST IVE SEEN BUT COULD REALLY PRODUCE SOME SNOW.
Hi-res models that support our forecast changes come from the RPM model and the RGEM model:
With all of that being said I do like what I see late Monday into Tuesday. As very cold Arctic air is in place we are very confident we are dealing with a fluffy high ratio snow event that will offer up some nice accumulations. More on that later. Please feel free to ask questions if you have any! M.