#INWX #ILWX #OHWX Southern Zones Forecast & Weekend Storm Talk. (Zones 1, 5, 6, ,7) JT.

Home / Uncategorized / #INWX #ILWX #OHWX Southern Zones Forecast & Weekend Storm Talk. (Zones 1, 5, 6, ,7) JT.

Video analysis:

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Forecast Discussion:

EVENING – TONIGHT: A warm front will continue to lift to the north through Missouri and Tennessee through the evening hours tonight. Along and ahead of this front clouds are on the increase along with rain chances.

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Scattered areas of rain will start to move into western Illinois around 5-6 PM this evening. This will move to the northeast as the warm front continue to lift northward.

7pm

By 9 PM areas of rain will be moving across zones 6/7 with perhaps a few light showers across zone 5.

9pm

By 11 am to midnight a few showers will be possible across southern Indiana. However, the more concentrated areas of rainfall will be moving through eastern Illinois and into western Indiana.

FRI12AM

Overnight scattered areas of rain will continue moving across the forecast region as the warm front progresses to the north.

By 7 – 8 AM Friday morning it looks like there will be a break in the rain across Illinois as the area of low pressure move to the regions west. However, isolated to scattered rain showers will remain ongoing across Indiana and Ohio. It does appear the air will be warm enough to supper all rain across most of the region a brief time of some light freezing rain/sleet appears possible across eastern zone 1/5 in Ohio.

FRI8AM

Lows overnight will be upper 20’s east to upper 30’s west.

FRIDAY: The warm front will continue to lift through the southern portions of the forecast region through the late morning hours on Friday. Ahead of the front isolated to widely scattered areas of rain will continue across the forecast zones.

FRI12PM

The warm front will continue to move north across the region as the low moves off to the north. Isolated to scattered areas of rain will continue across the region throughout the day.

Highs on Friday will be in the low 40’s north to low 50’s south.

Overnight Friday into Saturday a few isolated showers will be possible, but I do think there will be plenty of dry time as well.

Lows Friday into Saturday will be in the upper 30’s to around 50 south.

Rainfall totals through Saturday morning won’t be overly impressive across the region. While some local areas could see .4-.6” most places will see less.

namrain

WEEKEND: An area of low pressure will move out of the Rockies and southern Great Plains and move to the northeast, strengthening as it does. This will be the low pressure system that will impact our weather Saturday into Sunday.

By 10 AM Saturday the low will be approaching from the southwest. There are still a lot of questions regarding the track of the low and the placement of the accumulating snow.

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SAT 7PM

The majority of the models place the heaviest snow across central portions of Illinois. However, the morning data has shifted the low pressure a bit more to the southeast than previous runs.

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GFS
NAM
NAM

 This would seem more probable as the surface low usually tracks in the vicinity of the upper level vorticity max. The upper levels would support a track much farther south than many of the model solutions.

None the less, the confidence of an accumulating snow in some locations across the forecast zones is getting higher. However, the exact amounts and placement of such amounts are still uncertain. It’s a forecasts we will have to iron out over the next 12-24 hours as new data becomes available. Here is the latest map showing where the highest **potential** for snow is.

snowfall

Highs in Saturday will be a bit tricky as they will be highly dependent on where the low tracks and how quick the cold air surges in. For now we will call for highs in the mid 30’s west to around 50 to the southeast.

Overnight Saturday into Sunday rain and snow will remain possible across the region. Likely seeing places with rain changing over to snow through the night as cold air quickly surges in.

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We will also keep a close eye on how quick temperatures fall overnight. Because some places will see temperatures falling from above freezing to the low 20’s and even teens very quickly so flash freezing will be a concern overnight Saturday into Sunday.

As the low moves through Saturday night and Sunday winds will be on the gusty side. Some of the models even suggesting wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible!

For melting purposes and treatment planning we look to see some sunshine Sunday afternoon/evening. Now if wanting to use brine or what not IF we start as all rain it’s possible as much as 0.50″-0.60″ of rain could fall before the changeover to snow so it would wash away most of the treatment. I wouldn’t advise treating until pre-dawn Sunday right now perhaps ~3-5am if you treat prior to this time your product could be washed away.

Early Sunday the low will move off to the northeast. Any remaining precipitation will chance over to all snow as the cold air rapidly surges in behind the system.

Temperatures during the day on Sunday will be falling though the afternoon into the lower 30’s east to mid-teens west.

By  Sunday afternoon/evening snow showers will come to an end across all of the region and will start to give way to some clear skies. In fact, I won’t completely rule out some sunshine by late Sunday afternoon.

SUN1PM

 Lows Sunday night into Monday will be in the upper single digits to low 20’s. Exactly how cold we get will be dependent on the track of the snowfall.

NEXT WEEK: We will start the week off calm, but late Monday night through Tuesday we will be watching the potential for a clipper system to move across the forecast region. This will bring at least the chance at some light snow and some light accumulations as well.

tues